Sep 16, 2024

Weekly preview

Higher as expected. As it looks the pattern currently there is too many possible combinationd for the complex y/Y wave. So for now I will stick to the c-wave and 10w low, but waiting for more clarity.
The big picture has not changed, distribution is running since March, topping for almost 6 months and as usuall the sheeple is chearing every pop up while the big boys are sneaking through the exit.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term topping process for important high 4y cycle high. Intermediate term 40w low and now higher into 40w cycle high.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - zig-zag higher as expected. Waiting to see if it is b-wave or part of something bigger.


Intermediate term - it looks like complex pattern for the Y-wave... still waiting for the pattern to reveal itself.


Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - oscillators turned higher, long term indicators point lower.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - another higher low.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d low as expected now at 20d high. Possible 5w low and now higher into 5w or 10w cycle high.


Higher into 40w high and possible shorter 4y cycle high....

10 comments:

  1. Lines up with the rsi bear divergences now on mid time frames. Looks great - thank you!

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    Replies
    1. 25 point rate cut disappointment. 50 point cut pop and drop.

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    2. I think so. Fed futures are anticipating 50.

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  2. Krasi. ATH now. is this within your charts? it is madness again.

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  3. I did not want to speculate about the pattern but some options:
    The top is in - https://invst.ly/16idwk
    FED rate cut is the fuel for the final pop - https://invst.ly/16idxi
    Something complicated taking longer - https://invst.ly/16idzr

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    Replies
    1. The second is the most likely because it fits the best for other indices like DJ/SPXEW/NYSE.
      On the other side NDX looks like the first one, the third is not very likely.

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    2. if thats the case, I think its worth a long here. do you think so?

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  4. if second one is the most likely, how high can it go from here?

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