Weekly preview

Deep decline... illusionary strength not a surprise at all the markets are topping. Best case some topping pattern like ED, but so late in the cycle week 33 for the 40w cycle high I am rather sceptical.... more likely we have reversal from 40w high.
As I wrote last week quick look at the weekly indicators shows this is final move not a beginning and this week proved it... a lot of excitement for nothing.



TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term at 40w cycle high.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it could be impulse with extended third wave 2.168, but we need to see waves 4 and 5.
The pattern from the August low is very odd and it is difficult to say what exatcly we have.

Intermediate term - complex wave Y... waiting for more clarity if this is the top.

Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower with divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned higher and divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d low and next 20d high... maybe we saw the 20w high already.
The ugly pattern does not help to pin 10w cycle high/low with conviction... I have the feeling two weeks ago we had 10w low.

Week 32+1 for the 40w high - in the time band for a high.