Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term at 40w cycle high.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it could be impulse with extended third wave 2.168, but we need to see waves 4 and 5. The pattern from the August low is very odd and it is difficult to say what exatcly we have.
Intermediate term - complex wave Y... waiting for more clarity if this is the top.
Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower with divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned higher and divergence.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d low and next 20d high... maybe we saw the 20w high already.
The ugly pattern does not help to pin 10w cycle high/low with conviction... I have the feeling two weeks ago we had 10w low.
Week 32+1 for the 40w high - in the time band for a high.
Thank you Krasi for all good job and sharing. Hamid
ReplyDeleteThat's a lot but if you look to BTC, we are going to see it higher one more year, that says no down a lot for the spy or qqq, it takes one more year before the crash
ReplyDelete?!?!!??!?! BTC guarantied one more year higher - who told you so ?!?!!??!?!
DeleteBetter than top at 65
DeleteCrypto Crew university, but I think we almost finished
ReplyDeleteAlessio said the bull run is till end of 2026, if you look at brener cycle
ReplyDeleteSteve Courtney , look at his yearly chart
ReplyDeleteWell, if the "Crypto Crew", Alessio, and Steve Courtney (whomever they are) predict it, it's GOTTA be a sure thing!
ReplyDeleteKinda like the experts saying it would never hit 100k?
DeleteListen the "experts" or just look at the charts - https://invst.ly/17fers
ReplyDeleteBest case scenario RSI from this level blasts higher above 90, based on history the previous tops occurred after 3/4/7 months. This is the second RSI overbought top so it is not the beginning it is the end.
Everything is at a top gold,stocks,bitcoin..... silver does not follow, RUT/DJT does not follow,etherium does not follow this are not broad based bull markets this is just GREED and speculation. The result will be the same as usual... margin call and even faster decline.
You write, and the experts say this is the end of cycle and not the beginning
ReplyDelete