Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term at 40w cycle high.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - questionable impulse lower... so far most likely a-b with c to follow.
Intermediate term - complex wave Y... waiting for confirmation if this is the top.
Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - oscillators turned higher, but overall negative with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - heading lower and bounce higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - heading lower and bounce higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - divergence.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 20d high, next is decline into 20d/5w low.
Week 32+2 for the 40w high - in the time band for a high, maybe we saw it already.
3900 is the final target for the correction?
ReplyDeleteCan you give a approximate date for that?
It's shown on the long-term chart above - approximately April 1, 2025.
ReplyDeletethink you are getting too hung up on a line on chart and trying to trade it. Been following Krasi for awhile, they are directional and for context. Could be 4200 or 3300, could be March 1 or June 1st. Key is context and proposed direction. Krasi, correct me if I am wrong.
ReplyDeleteExactly it shows direction not price and time target. It means next for the pattern is up or down...
DeleteThe mess is complete it looks like:
ReplyDelete- NDX lower high and completed corrective sequence - https://invst.ly/17i0hi
- DJ higher high for double zig-zag from the August low - https://invst.ly/17i0an
- SPX something like double top so far
The pattern from August is getting more messy
So you are short on ndx?
ReplyDeleteNo, as I wrote I am short DAX
Deletewe can only tell what is the next direction is up or down?.....what about price level, this is the whole point of charts
ReplyDeleteI'd be just happy if I got the general direction right once in a while
DeleteI know only two methods to project targets:
Delete- Fibonacci levels - everyone can do it, there is several targets
- it comes from cycles I think shifted in time FLD - you need to buy software to do the math and drawing
I think your approach is wrong - you can not see in the future.
My approach is different - what kind of pattern we have corrective or not, completed or not, where in the time cycle we are, weak or not looking the indicators. When you answer this questions you can decide to buy/sell/hold.
buy/sell/hold at given level does not have any meaning without context.
Waiting for completed pattern:
ReplyDeletethe usual double zig-zag - https://invst.ly/17jsca
less likely diagonal - https://invst.ly/17js97
What about ndx direction?
ReplyDeletePlaying with DAX cycles I see this - https://invst.ly/17lohm
ReplyDeleteFits with the pattern and we have a low around mid-December then higher for the holidays.