Jan 12, 2025

Weekly preview

Nothing new, it looks like a pause during the holidays the b/2-wave for 5w high and now the next leg lower 3/c.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term turn lower into 40w cycle low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - some sideways move and second leg lower.


Intermediate term - nothing new the first target should be MA200 and support in the 5600-5700 area.


Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - oscillators resetting and turned lower... I would say one more decline for sustainable low.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - oversold level.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - base for another run higher?

HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 5w high divides in three shorter cycles and next should be lower into 10w low.


Next important low should be 40w low - earliest in March or it could stretch until May.

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