Feb 15, 2025

Weekly preview a little bit different

Short term more corrective mess... the waves of lesser degree have clear patterns, but trying to combine them into big picture pattern is difficult. I think it is a b-wave alternate something more complicated like triangle or diagonal.

Intermediate term - I have already posted what to expect in 2025 something like 20% decline and move up... not sure higher or lower high. Look at the charts below and make your choice.

Long term - I was playing with the charts and the more I watch them the more I think the 4y cycle low occured on schedule but with higher low because of the tech stock distorting the other indices. If you make this assumption that the 4y low was in October.2023 suddenly pattern and cycles fit perfectly and strong rally(2024) is exactly what should be expected from this low.


Short term - zig-zags on different degrees, only in hindsight you can tell with higher confidence the bigger pattern.
I think it is b-wave from a-b-c to test MA200 so the same pattern which I am talking about for weeks.


Long term from the strongest to the weakest index
NASDAQ/SP500 5 waves... zig-zags but five waves so w-y-z or 1-2-3-4-5 the move from the 2022 is close to completition
On larger degree from 2020 is this c or 3? I think it is c-wave I can not prove it... all I can say is way too choppy and weak with double RSI divergence - not my pick for third wave.


DJ/NYSE if you are looking for impulse like above.... even in this case expect 15-20% decline and if it is c or 3 it is your choice.


RUT2000 I do not see any confusion - corrective decline, the 4y cycle low occurs on schedule, corrective move higher in 2024, and now decline running


Now it is interesting if you apply this 4y cycle low late 2023 to other indices....
DJ/NYSE - clear pattern zig-zag higher, clear cycle lows on schedule on the pattern lows.


DAX - if the mess in the middle is x-wave completed on 4y cycle low suddenly you have crystal clear pattern two zig-zags with the same size Y=W... and again cycles running perfectly on schedule at pattern lows.

So my choice is 4y cycle low in late 2023 and from the low in 2020 a-b-c. You are free to see what you want to see.......

No comments:

Post a Comment