Weekly preview

Another sharp decline and zig-zag higher. The indices are close to 20w high and it is getting more likely that this is a top of a higher degree. Months ago I was talking about complex Y-wave with triangle and NDX is looking like triangle now. Expect decline for 10w low, higher for 20w high and with the current price action most likely 4y cycle high.

This is not good - instead of a decline into March to energize for another push higher the market is engaged in topping process lasting months with the sheeple aka retail investors sentiment off the charts "Largest Buy Imbalance In History: Retail Euphoria Breaks All Records", "JPM sentiment is even higher than the peak of the meme mania in 2021". And the verbal aggresion is now magnitudes higher than in 2019, not that I am surprised - simple human greed and stupidity.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - several weeks and 4y cycle high. Topping for several months running.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - another sharp decline and zig-zag higher. Probably part of a decline into 10w low.

Intermediate term - complex Y-wave and triangle y/Y is back on the table. This is not good because it means important top.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change some with divergences, some in the middle of their ranges, some with buy signal.
McClellan Oscillator - lower highs.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d high, next we should see decline into 10w low... it counts better as three cycles so far.

Next important low should be 40w low... maybe we are seeing 18m low/18m high sequence. Possible 4y cycle high and how it could look like.