Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - several weeks and 4y cycle high. Topping for several months running.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - another sharp decline and zig-zag higher. Probably part of a decline into 10w low.
Intermediate term - complex Y-wave and triangle y/Y is back on the table. This is not good because it means important top.
Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change some with divergences, some in the middle of their ranges, some with buy signal.
McClellan Oscillator - lower highs.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d high, next we should see decline into 10w low... it counts better as three cycles so far.
Next important low should be 40w low... maybe we are seeing 18m low/18m high sequence. Possible 4y cycle high and how it could look like.
Evaluating the time frame on a cyclical scale and as if we were in July 2005 .... the possibility is there and it is to aim for an absolute maximum by September October 2026 between 6500 /7.000..... We'll see what happens next but it's too early for the big short.
ReplyDelete"Evaluating the time frame on a cyclical scale and as if we were in July 2005"
DeleteHow did you came to this conclusion? Which is this time frame on cyclical scale?
If I measure from bottom(2002) to top(2007) the top is now 2020-2025.
If I measure top to top 2000-2007 the top is in a few months 2018-2025.
If I measure the length of every surge higher since 2009 it is long enough in months already.
Don't you think up with A, down with B and waiting for C to 6330?
ReplyDeleteSee above what I think
DeleteKrasi, others, thanks for sharing YouTube videos last week. Let's say what you say in true that both sides are controlled by the same people. If that is the case, why would they expose all the wastage in spending through DO_GE? Aren't the people in control benefitting from all the spending?
ReplyDeleteIf I think like you, my guess is that they are using that as an excuse to grab more power. Is that right?
I do not have all the answers, what I see is preparation for as I call it corporate feudalism.
DeleteThe worst of both capitalism - big corporations ruling and communism - some one telling you where and how to live what to think etc.
Trump and Musk are nothing more than two corporate guys. This guys do not care about common people.
Until now big corporations were hiding behind paid puppets/whores aka politicians - now they are the government, no more hiding needed.
So concrete maybe exposing how stupid and wasteful the government is to abolish it some day... I do not know.
They have enough money, they want total control. Yes, every crisis is used as a justification to grab more power.
Probably pressure valve / two steps forward, one back. Digital ID?
DeleteTwo YT channels worth recommending
https://www.youtube.com/@AcademicAgent
https://www.youtube.com/@newdiscourses (James Lindsay)
i.e. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uK3OwI39urk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWu-aQwo92M
A daily close above today's CPI gap will likely send price to 6200 on ES. Bears want to see it left partially open.
ReplyDeleteWhat about Dax?, very strong
ReplyDeleteWould like to see a sharp move down below Jan high before considering a short position on DAX.
DeleteMost likely this - https://invst.ly/18xpai
DeleteLooking other European indices like MIB EU50 CAC it is another double zig-zag and this is the top.]
DeleteLike this - https://invst.ly/18xpv8
It looks like you are still expecting a bigger decline this week or early next week?
DeleteToday 10w low ?
ReplyDeleteI doubt it probably 5w low
DeleteIMO ….. DOGE not needed, just propaganda to appease the masses. Two things will help any economy, bring prosperity, shrink inflation, stop government overspending and balance the budget #1 Gold Standard, back up currency with gold #2 get rid of the Federal Reserve
ReplyDeleteBut they will never be allowed to do it….
This are not the solutions, this is treating the consequences not the reason.
DeleteGovernment spending is the reason not FEDs spending, the private banks are just abusing the system. If it is not the FED they still will try to borrow money from somewhere else. Gold standard is not a working solution either - read history all kind of tricks reduce size/content of coins etc.
The system is broken, the so called democracy is a fraud for a long time. It will get better when the system changes and this will happen when the current one collapses - human nature no one will choose the pain.
All this trump MAGA bullshit is just crying for the past more of the same which does not work.
The empire is dying and currently sucking the periphery dry - tariffs, threats, Greenland follow the dots.
This will just postpone the inevitable for a few years.
What if we are in wave 2 of 5?
ReplyDeleteBut it is not.
DeleteIsn’t ES and NQ currently too bullish for your scenario to play out?
DeleteCould you tell me what is bullish on this chart - https://invst.ly/18ypew
DeleteThe corrective move higher two months from the previous high(10w high)?
Or the test of the broken RSI trend line?
Have not we seen the same already?
You could be right of course but lets be clear. Price doesn’t move based on trendlines, RSI or EW. It’ seeking liquidity. If we look at order flow on the higher timeframes like monthly and weekly its still bullish until proven otherwise. Regards
DeleteSo, what is it?
ReplyDeleteThis for example https://invst.ly/18ypew
DeleteBut it looks like NVDA going to close the gap, googl go up, the same for apple
ReplyDeleteEverything crashes into March it's a large ab with C next to 200ma.
ReplyDelete