Jun 21, 2017
Update
Move up to touch one more time the trend line and nasty reversal candle with more divergences. The Jury is still out there to decide if this is an impulse or wave B of expanded flat.... I think we will see a move lower to the 2415 area support/38%Fibo/MA50. If it is corrective we will see one more higher high if it is an impulse we will see a bounce from MA50 and lower to MA200:) classical technical analysis.
Jun 17, 2017
Weekly preview
Short term view - at the moment one more higher high looks more likely.
Intermediate term view - expecting intermediate term top and sharp correction.
Choppy sideway week.... the same analysis, the difference is the mess from this week is corrective pattern so far, which favors one more higher high. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the same patterns, at the moment we have only flat or a triangle for wave 4 which favors the bullish outcome. For the bearish case we need a strong reversal next week so that we have an impulse lower.
Intermediate term - no change. The next high will be intermediate term top.
Long term - the bull market is not over, but small divergences MACD/RSI are visible so correction is expected.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same story... only "Percent of Stocks above MA50" is trying to move into overbought territory, but most of the indicators with double divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero with long term divergence - lower tops since late 2016..
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but with double divergence since March.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - below 70 with double divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - trying to move into overbought territory, with divergences since the beginning of 2017.
Fear Indicator VIX - I think we will see a spike higher soon.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range, but turned lower.
HURST CYCLES
Day 21 of the 40 day cycle.
Week 11 of the last 20 week cycle, waiting for the top of the 18 month cycle.
GDXJ cycles - the next important low should be in Q4 2017. It is in the last 4th 24 week cycle of the 22 month cycle so the longer cycles 48/96 week are pointing lower. It is not a surprise that we have very weak start - 1/4 of it 6 weeks are behind us and I do not see much strength. The most bullish case I can see is a test of MA50. It will be very surprising to see something more bullish so late in the cycle with such weak price action. Most likely we have an A-B-C from the top and we will see important low for C in Q4.
Intermediate term view - expecting intermediate term top and sharp correction.
Choppy sideway week.... the same analysis, the difference is the mess from this week is corrective pattern so far, which favors one more higher high. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the same patterns, at the moment we have only flat or a triangle for wave 4 which favors the bullish outcome. For the bearish case we need a strong reversal next week so that we have an impulse lower.
Intermediate term - no change. The next high will be intermediate term top.
Long term - the bull market is not over, but small divergences MACD/RSI are visible so correction is expected.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same story... only "Percent of Stocks above MA50" is trying to move into overbought territory, but most of the indicators with double divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero with long term divergence - lower tops since late 2016..
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but with double divergence since March.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - below 70 with double divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - trying to move into overbought territory, with divergences since the beginning of 2017.
Fear Indicator VIX - I think we will see a spike higher soon.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range, but turned lower.
HURST CYCLES
Day 21 of the 40 day cycle.
Week 11 of the last 20 week cycle, waiting for the top of the 18 month cycle.
GDXJ cycles - the next important low should be in Q4 2017. It is in the last 4th 24 week cycle of the 22 month cycle so the longer cycles 48/96 week are pointing lower. It is not a surprise that we have very weak start - 1/4 of it 6 weeks are behind us and I do not see much strength. The most bullish case I can see is a test of MA50. It will be very surprising to see something more bullish so late in the cycle with such weak price action. Most likely we have an A-B-C from the top and we will see important low for C in Q4.
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