Weekly preview

Currently I think we saw the high 20w high and we should see two months lower for the next intermediate term low 20w low.
Short term my guess was lower into FOMC probably 10w low and higher into the holidays for 5w high - so far this is what we are seeing, lets see if it will continue to work next week.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high and now lower for two months.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - most likely we saw the top, leg lower which looks like impulse - if we see a lower low next week it will be confirmed.

Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. Removed the most bullish option it will not fit if you want to find common pattern with the other indices. The common pattern is something like flat and the B-wave is completed.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, we have possible intermediate term high.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower above 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - declining, in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - possible 20d high or "surprise" the high is in a few days around FOMC. It is bearish high so we should see lower low then the Christmas rally for 5w high.
The highs count good, but as I wrote a few times it will be difficult to pinpoint the 10w low.... the current low is the best candidate.

Week 8 for the 20w cycle low. Most likely we saw the 20w high waiting for confirmation next week.
Most obvious 18m low is in October... I have the suspicion it could have been in June - this is the low which fits with the pattern I follow.

Weekly preview

Now we have something which looks like close to completed pattern - one more high will complete double zig-zag for the second leg of a bigger zig-zag and week 16 for the 20w high(average 16-18 weeks). The top should be close next week. Could it stretch until Christmas - more likely not... maybe FOMC. I guess lower mid-December FOMC and test of the high the so called Christmas rally.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal... the count is not very clear. The daily cycle corresponds to the 10w cycle and it is a mess at the moment.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - close to the next high.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - corrective pattern difficult to count it. The moves are zig-zags so we should see small move down-up to complete the whole pattern. This should be c/B for completed correction or the third leg of a triangle.

Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. Removed the most bullish option it will not fit if you want to find common pattern with the other indices. The common pattern is something like flat and the B-wave is completing. If you step back and look at the big picture you will see move down for 5.5 months and sideways move for 5.5 months. So there is no reversal just digesting the decline from 2022 and better close for the year... better bonuses for wall street.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - some small divergences, still strong levels.
McClellan Oscillator - double divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, overbought level reached.
Bullish Percentage - overbought level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - very overbought level.
Fear Indicator VIX - complacency is back, at the trend line connecting the previous 3 lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - weakness short term divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - not very clear... it looks like we have 5w low and strong reaction and this should be 10w low too. The highs 20d cycle high in a few days expected and this should be the 20w high... according to the pattern analysis.

Week 16 for the 20w cycle high very close to the top of this move. Most obvious 18m low is in October... I have the suspicion it could have been in June - where the strong reaction started.