Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high and now lower for two months.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - most likely we saw the top, leg lower which looks like impulse - if we see a lower low next week it will be confirmed.
Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. Removed the most bullish option it will not fit if you want to find common pattern with the other indices. The common pattern is something like flat and the B-wave is completed.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, we have possible intermediate term high.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower above 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - declining, in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - possible 20d high or "surprise" the high is in a few days around FOMC. It is bearish high so we should see lower low then the Christmas rally for 5w high.
The highs count good, but as I wrote a few times it will be difficult to pinpoint the 10w low.... the current low is the best candidate.
Week 8 for the 20w cycle low. Most likely we saw the 20w high waiting for confirmation next week.
Most obvious 18m low is in October... I have the suspicion it could have been in June - this is the low which fits with the pattern I follow.
Jim Paulsen chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group, says “the lows are in,” as he sees the start of a new bull market with the S&P 500 moving to around 5,000 in the coming 12 months. Sure Jim, LOL.
ReplyDeleteeveryone is so bearish... is the market really that easy? keep thinkimg about that...
ReplyDeleteEveryone is so bearish... is based on your personal perception and has nothing to do with reality - keep thinking about that.
DeleteYes, the market is that easy - everything moves in cycles and the decline will not be completed until next year.
Fresh example 2020 - I was warning all the time, no one has listened and all the profits gone in a few months.
I think at the beginning of 2024, from last October 14-16 months for the 4 year low
DeleteThis will be the perfect case. Hint that this is the case will be if the B-wave stretches to March-April for 18m high as a triangle or flat.
DeleteBig rebound, it looks like yesterday was 10w low
ReplyDeleteA few days ago I see this - https://invst.ly/ztga7
DeleteThe M pattern for the top is taking shape.
Your are good Krasi!
DeleteToday's price action is one of the craziest I have seen. Such euphoria disappearing in just a few hours.
Someone asked about HFT/algos if they changed trading or if tools like cycles,EW continue to work.
DeleteMy answer was only day trading changed but the big picture has not.
It was perfect example - crazy speculation most likely caused by machines, but 20w high is a high... we saw exactly the same at the last low even bigger candle.
Are you short now? Looks like you nailed the timing of the reversal.
DeleteYes, I bought short ETF on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Deletehigher high with rsi divergence now
ReplyDeleteAnd the trend line has been broken and tested.... which usually means reversal.
DeleteKrasi, the dollar?, now it is in a important support from 1999
ReplyDeleteIt looks like reversal, next year we should see spike higher because everything else should decline.
DeleteI am not sure about pattern and cycle... I am just watching.
Intermediate term I am expecting bottoming and correction higher.
I think 118 in 2024, trend line 2009-2015-2016
DeleteTuesday, CPI .... Wednesday, Team "Transitory" .... today, Market Reflection? .... tomorrow, Triple Witching. Oughta be a fun day to cap this week.
ReplyDeletedifficult to say: 10w low yesterday, or next week or last week? very difficult :(
ReplyDeleteI think end of November - https://invst.ly/zum76
Deletesentienttrader the next week
Delete