Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - lower until late January/early February.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the market followed the projection and now watching for a retracement and one more leg lower.
Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. The leg up is choppy it fits as c/B of a triangle or a/B of a flat.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are declining... in the middle of a move lower.
McClellan Oscillator - short term divergence pointing higher.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - declining in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - declining in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - there is no much fear... does not really move higher
Advance-Decline Issues - hovering around the oversold level.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this week should have been 20d cycle low. Next week we should see a high for 20d/5w cycle high... no surprises so far.
Week 10 for the 20w cycle.
The most obvious 18m low is in October - this will fit with flat B-wave. I have the suspicion it could have been in June - this will fit with triangle B-wave.
Does that mean you closed your shorts? Or is the retracement not worth the odds?
ReplyDeleteNo, I am trading longer time frame 10 week cycle or longer - the first chart.
DeleteShorter counter trend moves are opportunity to add more to the position.
Thanks! Merry Xmas!
DeleteHappy Christmas from Italy
ReplyDeleteHappy Christmas from Bulgaria.
DeleteHappy Christmas from Spain
DeleteHappy Christmas from Brasil
DeleteMerry Christmas Krasi and all!🎄
ReplyDeleteThanks Krasi ,best wishes for the season.
ReplyDeleteHello, Krasi - best of holidays to you. At least on my "take", GDX (daily) has completed an inverse H&S bottom, retested the broken neckline, and is now consolidating around the 30.00 area. Does that consolidation look like an ascending triangle forming, which would project a minimum upside objective of at least 34.00 (provided the A.T. pattern doesn't fail)? Thanks much.
ReplyDeleteBTW, the above "take" is very well following the prognostications of the WaveTrack International 'Shock-Pop-Drop' & 'Inflation-Pop' article recently posted.
DeleteThe way I see it complete pattern and cycle (gdxj chart but gdx is the same) - https://ibb.co/JycKXRC
DeleteNeither pattern looks complete nor 2.5 years is long enough for 4y cycle.
Much obliged for your input, Krasi. The reason I was curious on your take was looking at GDX's proximity to overhead resistance (daily, weekly, and monthly MAs), and if miners retested the Sept. '22 lows sometime soon, would nicely set up a bullish divergence vs. indicators potential on the monthly chart, for a much bigger run upward thereafter. The chart you provided seems to agree with that potential. Thanks again for all you do here on your blog,
Delete
ReplyDeleteWe're going to 5w low next week.
Yes, this is likely... pattern and cycles will look good.
Delete