Weekly preview

Nice rounding top, next week we should see short term low then higher for the holidays. The 20w cycle is turning lower and in January after the holidays should be the acceleration phase - the biggest decline. I am watching the last week of January +-1 week for potential intermediate term low. This is my plan for the moment and when we see the decline we will know more about the pattern - if the B-wave is completed or not.




TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - lower until late January/early February.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like impulse lower which should be completed in the next few days then a retracement higher for the holidays.

Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. This leg up is choppy it fits as c/B of a triangle or a/B of a flat.
The alternate option B is completed as a flat - not impossible it works for DJ, but SPX/NDX look very weak.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - all turned lower with sell signals.
McClellan Oscillator - declining below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - declining below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - declining below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned up, not much fear and volatility for the moment.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we saw 20d high, now declining and we should see 20d low next week then higher for the holidays.

Week 9 for the 20w cycle low. Two red weeks in a row and RSI crossed the MA - it looks like the 20w cycle turned lower.
Most obvious 18m low is in October... I have the suspicion it could have been in June - this is the low which fits with the pattern I follow.