Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - lower until late January/early February.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - some sideways mess for x-wave before continuation lower(white) or surprise this is impulse(red) with one more wave lower. It will be a "surprise" because I have not seen clean impulse for a long time.
Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. The last leg up is choppy it fits as c/B of a triangle or a/B of a flat, so far the current leg lower is too slow and choppy for reversal so d/B or b/B.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are declining... in the middle of a move lower.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero, it looks like short term divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - declining in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - declining in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - there is no much fear... does not really move higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - hovering around the oversold level.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it is a sideways mess and somewhere in this mess we have 5w low and probably next week 5w high.
I am thinking maybe we can count one 10w cycle in the middle and 2x5w cycles left and right of it. The same pattern played out with the previous 20w cycle... in this case the arrows show where we are in this time not price pattern.
Week 11 for the 20w cycle.
The most obvious 18m low is in October - this will fit with flat B-wave. I have the suspicion it could have been in June - this will fit with triangle B-wave.
What I mean with moving slowly - usually the reversal is faster(time) than the previous move in the opposite direction.
ReplyDeleteSPX we have 7 weeks up and already 4 weeks lower... retracing 50%. With very high probability will see intermediate term low(20w cycle low) in 4-5 weeks or a move of the same degree as the previous one. All this means sub-waves of a bigger pattern and not a reversal.
If you look DAX (or DJI) it looks even better 8 weeks up and 5 weeks lower retracing less than 38%... it is difficult to see this as bearish price action.
If dax make new lows next week, I think it is very clear the cycles: 8 December 10w low and next week 5w low, (20 December 20d low)
DeleteKrasi, I think what you are saying here is the down move should reverse the up move in less time...which is true for Bear markets...but when it takes too long to reverse bullish moves, we should expect some upside? Is that what you mean?
DeleteThanks for all your hard work.
And therefore, Krasi, based on your take, it is more likely that the "or B" wave option will take place on the intermediate term/chart versus the other wave option of "e/B"?
DeleteAnd therefore, Part II, on the intermediate chart above, "or A" to "or B" waves (3) would constitute a zigzag / X? Thanks much.
Delete@Anonymous - for reversal the move in the opposite direction of the trend should take less time to retrace 100% of the previous move of the same degree. It works in both directions. This rule works very good... 80-90% of the time - there is no perfect rule/indicator.
DeleteYes, what I want to say is when the current move lower is completed we should see one more to the upside before the big wave lower.
@Johnny Williamson - no, it is more likely that the B-wave is not completed. If it is a flat or triangle I can not say.
DJI the mess starts taking shape - https://invst.ly/zyc6e
ReplyDeleteAll this one month later for 5w high and b/x-wave top.
The c-wave.... just the middle part the mess ist bigger:)
DeleteSeeing NDX, is it possible 28 December 20d low and 3 January 20d high?
ReplyDeleteIn sp from 22 december it is a neovawe symmetrical, it is breaking the trend line f-h
ReplyDelete