Dec 30, 2017
Update
Two weeks in a tight range, holidays:) Everybody celebrating their huge gains in 2017:)))
This decline on Friday makes the short term pattern ambiguous.... either we have a-b-c last two weeks and one final high or the correction has begun. I can find arguments for both cases. The next 1-2 trading days will show the exact short term pattern. Do not worry there will be enough opportunities to take profits or short if you want:) enjoy the holidays!!!!
I am using the time to prepare the long term update, which I will post on second of January.
I am almost ready with it and interesting is I see every asset sending the same message - expect intermediate term bottom/top(NATGAS and PM already reversed, the others need a few days to a few weeks). I do not think stocks will escape "gravity" and trade on their own.
Dec 24, 2017
Weekly preview
Short term view - one more high, it is a bull market what can go wrong:)
Intermediate term view - intermediate term top wave 3 expected soon.
Higher as expected and then levitating around this levels whole week. Nothing much new holidays - no reversal signature so far... it is a bull market so I will assume there is one more high. As a side note very often the reversal begins with long sideway move which looks corrective and suddenly accelerates in the opposite direction. So if you are a short term trader be cautious, there is indexes which are in a correction already like DAX,EEM,SOX. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - close to a top the pattern always gets ambiguous will we see one more wave higher or not. So far there is nor reversal pattern so I assume this is another wave iv. Reversal only if the price accelerates below 2675 and drops to 2660 or lower.
Intermediate term - in the final stages of wave 3. Fibo retracement 23,6% around 2540 and 38,2% around 2440 are shown on the chart.
Long term - one more correction and a rally before turning very bearish. The next wave lower will show us if the move from the Feb.2016 is over or not. I think it is not.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week, not signaling an imminent plunge lower, but some of them look tired and do not follow the price.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero with divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - neutral, since the November low is not really moving up with the price.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - still strong buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - short term divergences and below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - small divergence and intermediate term it looks like rounding bottom.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range. A/D cumulative is struggling and look like it is topping.
HURST CYCLES
Day 26 of the 40 day cycle.
Week 5 of the 20 week cycle.
Intermediate term view - intermediate term top wave 3 expected soon.
Higher as expected and then levitating around this levels whole week. Nothing much new holidays - no reversal signature so far... it is a bull market so I will assume there is one more high. As a side note very often the reversal begins with long sideway move which looks corrective and suddenly accelerates in the opposite direction. So if you are a short term trader be cautious, there is indexes which are in a correction already like DAX,EEM,SOX. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - close to a top the pattern always gets ambiguous will we see one more wave higher or not. So far there is nor reversal pattern so I assume this is another wave iv. Reversal only if the price accelerates below 2675 and drops to 2660 or lower.
Intermediate term - in the final stages of wave 3. Fibo retracement 23,6% around 2540 and 38,2% around 2440 are shown on the chart.
Long term - one more correction and a rally before turning very bearish. The next wave lower will show us if the move from the Feb.2016 is over or not. I think it is not.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week, not signaling an imminent plunge lower, but some of them look tired and do not follow the price.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero with divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - neutral, since the November low is not really moving up with the price.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - still strong buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - short term divergences and below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - small divergence and intermediate term it looks like rounding bottom.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range. A/D cumulative is struggling and look like it is topping.
HURST CYCLES
Day 26 of the 40 day cycle.
Week 5 of the 20 week cycle.
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