Weekly preview

In the comments I wrote that plunge is unlikely so the price behavior this week is not a surprise. For a bigger move we should see most shares/assets aligned and ready to decline. For example I am watching BA to reset the indicators and finish w2 before DJIA plunge lower, or the energy sector crude oil/XOI - I think they have finished wave 4/c and we need one more higher high 5/c to complete corrective leg a-b-c higher.

For SP500 higher high in the area 2865-2875 with divergences will look better. From EW perspective higher high will not change much the ED will be in tact. From cycle perspective with higher high we will have right translated cycle, which means the next 20 week cycle should make higher high.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I think we have zig-zag lower and another zig-zag higher is running all this part of the ED. Alternate corrective wave ii(red) is running making lower high and next week the decline continues.

Intermediate term - price is struggling in the resistance zone and the indicators showing weakness with divergences. Even in the bullish case we should see decline for wave 2/b.

Long term - wave B/X running for IV from 2009. If I am wrong it is an impulse wave 1.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - nothing new market breadth is weak and even if we see higher high for the indexes the divergences will be just bigger.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - topping.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence expected.
Fear Indicator VIX - building divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - weak and divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Day 15 for the current daily cycle. If we see higher high two daily cycles will look better than three shorter one. The end result will be the same so it does not really matter for trading.

Week 14 for the 20 week cycle. Last week I have shown the two counts with shorter and longer 18 month cycles.

Crude oil - this is zig-zag for me with v/c running. Moving averages are like magnet and we see classical price action - huge plunge below MA200 and now price is coming back to kiss it.

Weekly preview

One more rally as expected, which corresponds to the expanding ED shown last week and sharp reversal. So now we have the minimum waves needed for finished pattern and the reversal is not a surprise. The cycles suggest that the 20 week cycle turned lower and we should see roughly 3 weeks lower. Market breadth was already negative in the last two weeks with divergences, TomDemark sell setup on the weekly chart.... so expect the indexes moving lower for a few weeks.
Possible EW patterns - finished B wave or alternate expanding flat correction(not my favorite). Impulse lower in both cases, the only difference between the two patterns is how deep the retracement will be. For a flat in the range 2680-2700 for B and reversal minimum 38% retracement.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - now we have possible finished pattern wave B(white), but expanding flat correction for b(red) can not be excluded. Minimum expected is an impulse lower to support around 2680.

Intermediate term - pullback from the first resistance, then the second one tested and sharp reversal. The indicators with divergences so I expect lower for a few weeks than we will assess the pattern again. I still think this is corrective wave B/X what ever... I can not see an impulse.

Long term - wave B running for IV from 2009. If I am wrong it is an impulse wave 1.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - divergences and now with sell signals.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - divergence and sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence and sell signal.
Fear Indicator VIX - bounced from the trend line connecting the important lows in 2018 and turned higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - bigger divergence and turned lower.


HURST CYCLES
Day 10 for the current daily cycle.
Sharp reversal closing below the previous day low and MA10 which means high probability that the daily cycle turned lower.
Overall text book cycle behavior - the first one very strong, the second one weaker and the third one left translated failed cycle to signal the cycle of higher degree turned lower.

Week 13 for the 20 week cycle. Again both models with shorter and longer 18 month cycles.
Shorter 18 month cycles - if we have wave B the last 40 week cycle is running. In April we should see 20 week cycle low wave 1/C bounce up a few weeks 2/C and then lower July/August 3-4-5/C for 4 year cycle low.

Longer 18 month cycles - the only way I see for this count to work is if we have complex W-X-Y pattern. In this case we should see 20 week cycle low in April and another higher high for a-b-c/X. Another option is huge flat and instead X it is B, but then c/B should take another 2 months at least and C lower should move "slowly" instead of 2-3 months something like 5-6 months.