Short term - I think we have zig-zag lower and another zig-zag higher is running all this part of the ED. Alternate corrective wave ii(red) is running making lower high and next week the decline continues.
Intermediate term - price is struggling in the resistance zone and the indicators showing weakness with divergences. Even in the bullish case we should see decline for wave 2/b.
Long term - wave B/X running for IV from 2009. If I am wrong it is an impulse wave 1.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - nothing new market breadth is weak and even if we see higher high for the indexes the divergences will be just bigger.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - topping.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence expected.
Fear Indicator VIX - building divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - weak and divergences.
HURST CYCLES
Day 15 for the current daily cycle. If we see higher high two daily cycles will look better than three shorter one. The end result will be the same so it does not really matter for trading.
Week 14 for the 20 week cycle. Last week I have shown the two counts with shorter and longer 18 month cycles.
Crude oil - this is zig-zag for me with v/c running. Moving averages are like magnet and we see classical price action - huge plunge below MA200 and now price is coming back to kiss it.
Thank you very much Krasi.
ReplyDeleteI have a doubt: when you say "the next 20 week cycle should make higher high", if the SP make a higher high around 2870 for 5/c/B or 5/c/X the pattern would be finished and there would not be a higher high.
For X I see something different see the last chart from previous week.
DeleteFor B we could see something like double top.
We will see first what happens in April and then make decision what is going on.
Hi, Krasi, Thank you for the insight. I have a question about long term US housing market. When compared with GOLD, it shows another retest of the low in 2010 would be reasonable. What do you think? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteGold I would say it has limited downside potential, this year we should see 4 year cycle low and move higher. So probably yes real estate will cost less measured in ounces of gold.
DeleteIs it not possible we will retest the all time highs before any major decline? A lot of TA people have been predicting reversal for weeks now but it just keeps rising. How come there is no alternate prediction showing the market going higher? We are only a few percent away now, surely it would seem likely at this point?
ReplyDeleteThanks
I do not think it is likely. The market is testing the Jan.2018 for a few weeks and struggles in the resistance zone with the price overlapping and a lot of divergences and weakness. I do not how to stretch it to 2950 and higher.
DeleteHow can your count still be valid in any way? You’ve been forecasting a move down every week for the last 2 months while the markets have been parabolic.
ReplyDeleteWhile I understand that last comment to a degree all last week Krasi called it higher.......
ReplyDeleteMy intention is not to be unkind and I do appreciate the dedication. It seems though that bias has intervened...frustrating to see someone with what appears to be vast knowledge not contemplate
ReplyDeleteWhat I wrote two weeks ago just wait for the new high - here we go:)
ReplyDeleteI do not care about herd thinking so nothing to contemplate.
You see parabolic move... because you have bended the herd thinking, all this pressure from the masses, the market is so strong for so long.... watching but not seeing.
What I see - the parabolic move was over on 25.02 six weeks ago. Since then we have overlapping price action, divergences, distribution and SP500 moved 50 points higher.... I am very "impressed". Why do you think I am drawing ending diagonals for several weeks? If you open your eyes and starting reading and thinking maybe you will see what I am talking about.
Better visual - http://imageshack.com/i/plFnk8urp - double divergences,overlapping waves,weak second cycle, selling on strength(big boys distributing).
Let put it straight and cut the crap calling down for two months:
- December multi month up expected, in comments suggested the Jan.2018 high tested because of extremely oversold market breadth.
- late January/early February wrong expecting bigger b wave - did not happen.
- since then trying to find the top of c and suggesting ED pattern for weeks.
- several weeks ago wrote in comments that we need one more high for complete pattern despite the decline first half of March.
- two weeks ago first possible high 22.03
- corrected myself on the same day - different assets must synchronize new high.
Yes it looks like lower every week because the index is not advancing just struggles in the resistance zone in some kind of ED. I draw small push higher and lower and this the last several weeks.
Is it not possible that you have herd thinking too? Every TA blog is calling for a top yet we are sitting less than 1% from 2900 (which you still say is unlikely... think about what is more likely at this point?) and only a few percent from new highs.
DeleteThe "wait and see" approach will obviously work - a top will be made inevitably but it could be soon or not soon... so eventually you will get it, but at what opportunity cost?
The chart above is from this guy - https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2019/04/01/closer-to-a-top-than-a-bottom/
ReplyDeleteI should write some day a post about cycles - combining it with the approach above. Very simple way to follow the cycles and the market and very simple trading system.
Thank you, sir
ReplyDeleteI think we can see a new ath around 2950 but it will be wave B strong, then C to 2100-2200
ReplyDeleteits possible to see that but i doubt highly that 2100 or 2200 is coming anytime soon march lows will come in my opinion
DeleteWho says it should be soon? I am starting to think this is X wave 2100 or 2200 will come with 4 year cycle low late 2019 early 2020. Even if it is C lower at least 4-5 months.
DeleteAnonymous made a comment And I gave a my opinion what's your opinion on the short term on SPX is it 2950 is it 3000 what is it? Thanks
DeleteI have a deja vu September 2018:) I doubt it will hit 2900 and you are talking about 3000 again.
DeleteEither this is the high or one more down up for ED.
lol we are at 2885 already whats another 15 points i see there is a gap up around 2840 we should at least fill that
DeleteKrasi what does one more down up for ed mean
DeleteED is ending diagonal, from the last low there is 3 waves so one more down and up needed for this pattern.
DeleteIs it possible ED is finished?. I see 5 waves
DeleteYes, it is possible. It depends on where you start to count - the first chart shows finished ED.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/0wHQE5V
ReplyDeleteBrad has always some strange counts... I am not sure if it is Elliott waves at all:)
DeleteI expect the same time and price for the correction.
i hear ya
DeleteShort term - https://imgur.com/a/xlLWHa0
ReplyDeleteWave 3 with 2,618 extension not the usual 1,618 that is why above the expected range 2865-2875.
If this is the right count the high should be around 2895.
Atrocious performance by Krasi lately. we are near all time highs again, Krasi was flat out wrong once again. It's becoming embarassing.
ReplyDeleteYou must be a libtard or a pica You should pull the plug on your losses I'm sick and tired of hearing your baby shit I always love you guys that don't show there name and don't know Jack shit This man krasi puts his heart and soul Nobody's right all of the time
DeleteThis blog is for informational purposes only no need to call names to people if you do that just means you're in secure don't know what you're doing
DeleteLets see lately - the last two weeks prediction:
Delete- higher high
- the trolls will crawl out of their holes to explain me how wrong I am
Perfect predictions... why is this "atrocious"?
Krasi - for humor you should write your own anonymous hate message to yourself - beat the trolls to the punch - be absurd - you charge too much.
DeleteNobody's right all the time but it would be great if Krasi was right once in a while.
ReplyDeleteI don't want to criticize but his track record has been terrible over the past 12 months, it's almost shameful to be quite honest
Thank you
Then stop reading and go elsewhere....forums should be positive and constructive....if you think hes that "cold" trade the opposite.....GOODBYE!
ReplyDeleteI have still been holding on to Krasi’s conviction from before September 2018 that the period between Jan 2018 to September was a B wave. It’s been working out pretty nicely with C already completed and D wave to be completed in the range of 3050-3100 on s&p. E wave to follow after that to about 2100-2200. This will form a nice expanded triangle with a span of about 2 years in total which is about right for the IV wave. It’s a very rare triangle which happened between 1966-1975, check weekly chart. This one, if it plays out will be a mini-me of that one from the past which was huge. Krasi, would you agree with such a prediction?
ReplyDeleteInteresting idea, the only "problem" is, it is rare pattern.... I have to check the indexes and the shares I follow to see if it fits.
DeleteThis will explain why some astro guys(with good record) are saying a few more months higher and then lower late 2019 early 2020(the 4 year cycle low).
This will solve another problem too - with market breadth reaching such overbought levels we have strength and reversal will be strange so one more high with divergence will fit better.
My plan is simple something lower for 20 week cycle low - if it is an impulse we have reversal, if it is a zig-zag one more high.
I agree...no need to be negative. Krasi you are great and appreciate your work. No one is right all the time, and yes, even if these two months you have been trying to call the top (just like everyone else)and been wrong in your analysis( the charts have always called for a near top), I really hope that you will be right soon...very soon...thank you for the great work!!!!
ReplyDeleteMaybe Krasi needs to take some time off. That's what I do when I've been wrong for a long time: I take a break, breathe some fresh air, go on a vacation, and then I come back stronger than ever.
ReplyDeleteThere's nothing in being wrong, we are humans. I've been spectacularly wrong at times, like Krasi recently with his embarassing prediction, and it's not the end of the world