Mar 16, 2019

Weekly preview

Higher for the week as expected, but on Monday impulse to the downside has not been confirmed and the move up made higher high(DJIA has not). Short term it is more complicated now with this bunch of corrective waves... all probabilities I see are shown on the first chart - ED or complex correction shown last week. Next week is decision time the market will show us what is going on.

Intermediate term - see the forest for the trees the next bigger move is lower. The indexes are close to a high, the 20 week cycle should turn lower soon, the indicators does not look good building divergences, market breadth is building divergences,TomDemark weekly sell setup finished, Europe and crude oil finishing a-b-c. I do not know how to twist the intermediate term picture bullish.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the red scenario is the same, which I have shown last week. The indexes are in sync DJIA weaker with simple zig-zag and SP500 stronger with flat for wave (a)/b.
With the higher high is the door open for ED pattern which I have mentioned a few times. Wave 5(yellow) for expanding ED to test the Jan.2018 high or w3(white) for ED with 4-5/c/B to follow.


Intermediate term - the indicators do not look so good, I expect divergences. Nearing the top for the move which begun in Dec.2018. Next bigger move should be lower mid-April or later for 20 week cycle low.


Long term - wave B running for IV from 2009. If I am wrong it is an impulse and it is wave 1.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower last week and now ready for divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - heading higher after oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - lower high and divergence?
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - lower high and divergence?
Fear Indicator VIX - plunged lower to the trend line connecting the last two lows. The risk for a reversal is rising.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher, but expect more divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Day 5 for the third daily cycle. Definitely looks like three shorter cycles.

Week 12 for the 20 week cycle. It is mature now and any move higher should not last very long. If we have wave B I have to switch to the model with shorter cycles - the last 40 week cycle running.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Week 9 we have finished sell setup. Price flip will confirm sell signal - for the next week this is close below 2792.

36 comments:

  1. Thanks Krasi. If we have the last 40 week cycle running, it means that the wave C will finish in June-July instead of October-November?

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    1. More like August-September. The current 20 week cycle should make a low around mid-April or later. Than another 16 weeks... this is the average length.

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    2. I'm not familiar with Hurst cycles but how is C going to finish August-September, that's appx. 5 months when we are almost done wave B?

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    3. What is the problem with wave C lasting 5 months?

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  2. Hi Krasi.. looking at your first chart, do you expect that after the red line b the market will make new high in c of B before falling in wave C? Or will it fall short of it? Thanks

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    1. It should make higher high if it is b/B.

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  3. Krasi, the drop of 90 points in s&p on March 04-08 was not very deep but it was a clear zigzag and the largest drop since the end of dec. can we consider it as b of B?

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  4. I am thinking that this is not wave B, it is 1 of V or 1x ED of V

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    1. From the low in 2009 one more wave higher is expected this is V. If it is already running we are seeing 1 of V with 2-3-4-5 to follow then major top.

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    2. so 2-3-4-5 those are up dont get this type of wave theory

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    3. We can be sure only when we see the decline for the 20 week cycle.
      I am skeptical because time does fit, but if wee see only a zig-zag lower maybe it is 1/V.
      What is the problem with time:
      - 4 year cycle high Jan.2018 only 2 years and 8 months
      - 4 year cycle low Dec.2018 only 2 years and 10 months
      - 4 year cycle high Q1/Q2(w1 three months let say another 12-18 months) only 2 years and 6-10 months

      This is way too short one cycle ok maybe anomaly it could happen, but three in a row.... I do not believe it.

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    4. It is simple the wave subdivide in 5 smaller waves. This is 1 correction lower for 2 another leg up 3 pause to digest the rally 4 and final surge 5

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    5. But wave V could be ED, now 1x.
      This could explain why this movement since December is so strong, wave 1 is the largest en ED, not 3

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    6. From EW perspective I do not have a problem if this is 1/V , ED etc. just saying cycles will be out of sync.

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  5. I like this as 1 of V, i expect 1 to be larger, stronger than 3, for a change as following large drop....buy any ~5% pullback in reckon.

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  6. Which chart are we supposed to follow then?

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    1. Reversal lower, if we see only zig-zag around 2790 than ED the pattern in white from the first chart.

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  7. Possible high corresponding to the yellow pattern from the first chart. Of course we need confirmation and this will be impulse lower to around 2760 to test the trend line(see the chart).
    Only a zig-zag to MA200 hourly around 2790 than one more high to finish ED - the pattern in white from the first chart.

    https://imgur.com/a/1eFhH9P

    P.S. Very high probability for a top - the clueless trolls crawling out of their holes again explaining me how stupid my analysis is and the blog worthless:) Like I have not heard that twice in 2018:))))

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    1. Don't see any trolls commenting this week but they would be right saying you haven't been very accurate this year.

      Where was the 5th wave down after the 2018 low? You've been calling for a reversal for months now. I'm sure you'll be "right" eventually but how long will you have to be wrong before that happens?

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    2. Krasi does some great work if this is the worst site like you said what are you still doing on it you can't blame anybody for your loss is buddy it sounds like you're getting your ass kicked

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    3. I appreciate the work you do here. This B wave looks like it'll reach ATH or close to before dropping in a C wave. Trolls should leave and go check with a fortune teller if they're upset. Nobody can 100% be confident in the top and forecasts need to change day by day based on price action.

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    4. I have deleted the previous bullshit, but here we go again - calling for a reversal for months?!?!?!
      I know why you attack me simple psychology - you made some money which makes you feel good and you do not want to hear bad news... the market is so strong how dare you to say the word "lower". You are so emotionally blinded you do not even try to understand what I am writing... you can't anyway.
      And the attack makes you feel better:) I have been there long time ago:)

      You do not have a clue about trading. You are an amateur making no difference between analysis and trading plan. You are still thinking in terms right and wrong. Good luck trading with this attitude.

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  8. Every Saturday, I look forward to krasi's perspective and try to reconcile my views...thanks for your blog!

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  9. Thanks for your blog, it is one of the best

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    1. I second this. It is a very useful blog. It is simple to follow even for those who don't yet fully understand EW and the complex patterns. :-) I too look forward to it every weekend to get a sense of what may happen next with a full understanding that Krasi may not be always right. If he was always right, he would be on a beach in Bahamas sipping a margarita and not listening to trolls here. :-) You know what makes the blog great Krasi? You care to reply to all the questions and comments no matter how stupid they can be. For someone who is learning, it feels like there is a mentor out there who cares to teach you something that is very relevant and useful. Thanks for taking the effort to write the blog, to post mid-week updates when it is necessary and for caring to respond to questions and comments!

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  10. Thanks guys, the previous "expert" which i have deleted told me I am so wrong why I bother writing the blog at all:) I see there is many which appreciate it.
    Of course I have made mistakes, I can not see the feature. I have learned from my mistakes in 2017 and current rally(obvious problem with vertical moves). I am really trying to improve the analysis for less of this mistakes.

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  11. In the euro dollar, do you still think that we are in wave C to 1.06?

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    1. I think we have wave B triangle lasting 7 months and wave C has just started. I am watching the 0,618 extension around 1,065.

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  12. b/B or 1/C, that is the question.....

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    1. This is very difficult question. I lean towards 1/C.

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  13. Things are getting exciting in the s&p krasi, any last minute thoughts before Friday ends?

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    1. Nothing interesting until we see impulse lower:) It is important to see the close for the day if it will be near the low for the day for ugly daily and weekly candle.

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  14. What time do you Mark your close at as a matter of interest?

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