Short term - difficult to see reversal pattern, only corrective crap. Most likely we are seeing wave iii-iv of c/B. In this case we should see one more move lower to finish iv and v should make new high. The signs point to something around 2870 - several Fibo measurements, one more hit of the trend line, resistance Jan.2018 high.
What bothers me is this final zig-zag in the circle so something slightly different could be playing out - see the second chart.
Different outcome, but only short term which does not change the big picture.
Intermediate term - first resistance hit and as long as the price stays above MA200 the next target should be the Jan.2018 high.
The indicators showing that the trend is exhausted - best case is one more high with divergences to finish a-b-c/B.
Long term - wave B running for IV from 2009. If I am wrong it is an impulse and it is wave 1.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - double divergences for the oscillators like A/D line and McClellan Oscillator. The trend following indicators are still pointing up.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, in overbought territory.
Bullish Percentage - slightly above 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - very overbought.
Fear Indicator VIX - nearing the trend line, expect intermediate term low soon.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergences and turning lower.
HURST CYCLES
Day 45 for the daily cycle.... wondering if we have three shorter cycles 3x~25 days instead of 2x~40 days.
Week 10 for the 20 week cycle. Another option is shorter cycles and this is the second 40 week cycle for the last 18 month cycle.
What's going to drop this Market I don't see it
ReplyDeleteThere is no need of special event/news. The market just moves higher or lower.
DeleteAnd just like that without news 50 points lower:)
DeleteIt looks like the pattern from the first chart - flat pattern for wave iv and the lower trend line hit. Now the bulls should step in and buy the dip to clear the ugly candle.
ReplyDelete& then we see whether it's a higher or lower high . Should be done this week either way ...
ReplyDeleteAnd then down ?
DeleteThen at least 38%(max 50%) correction until the first half of April for 20 week cycle low.
DeleteStill learning here, 50% of what high?
DeleteThe high which will finish the move from the December low... still waiting for it this 5/c.
DeleteCool, and that 50% is around 2100?
DeleteI think we have started b of B
ReplyDeleteOne more high will look much better including Europe, crude oil.... no reversal signature either so far.
DeleteBut that more high for a/B or B?
ReplyDeleteIt should be B... it can be confirmed only when we see the decline after that.
DeleteWhen I look back over the last year , the "final high" or final low" to make a pattern look complete has rarely come - we'll see this time .......
ReplyDeleteYes, it is very difficult to nail tops/bottoms no matter how good the analysis are. The only option is to adjust the trading plan to this facts.
DeleteIt is taking too long, RUT does not look good so maybe the top is in, but as I wrote for me the low risk trade is the second top not this one no matter lower high or higher high with divergences.
No truer words said.
DeleteAnyone following elliott wave in a vacuum got left in the dust at the Christmas eve low if they were waiting for one more wave down.
Everything I follow is rolling over now.
Russell 2000 looks to have topped already although Asia still happy
ReplyDeleteNext high? I'm confused, is this impulse lower and time to short? or are you still expecting 2870?
ReplyDeleteNo matter the pattern short trade with low risk is not this high but the next one.
DeleteWave b or 2 - I want to trade the c wave of the correction
Wave B and one more higher high - you should trade the final high with divergence.
Wave B finished - wait for confirmation first and the high should be tested with such strong cycle and market breadth I do not expect sudden plunge.
Currently I do not see impulse lower, which does not mean it can not develop in the next days. I am just waiting for a trade with low risk and I do not think this is now.
Thank you that's helpful trading strategy color. The reason I asked is that in this week's update you said "As long as the price stays above MA200 around 2750 I expect one more leg higher..." and sure enough we went through it and closed below the 200dma. Maybe I'm reading too much into the importance of that part of your comment this week...but given the downside you are forecasting, I would've thought the low risk trade would be to short against Monday's high since it's hard for me to see much of a b or 2 wave in the recent corrections we've had
ReplyDeleteThis waves 2/b should take weeks and the low should be 20 week cycle low in April so there is enough time.
ReplyDeleteNow the price moved below my target for wave 4 and I have to look for another possible patterns. Another higher high is not a guarantee any more in fact the only way is if this is w2 of ED.
Do you mind showing what w2 of ED would look like in the update? Thank you
DeleteNot my favorite pattern, the indicators do not really fit, but who knows if we see a continuation next week to around 2800 to negate the ugly wekly candle - https://imgur.com/a/p2y8Fgg
DeleteIt is a/b/B
ReplyDeleteI am thinking the same at the moment.
Deletelooks like 2670 then 2950
ReplyDelete2670 is just the first leg lower, it will take until April for the next important low.
DeleteKrasi, Do you know where I can find the a/d line with all Usa stocks? not only nyse
ReplyDeleteI thought NYSE is all stocks.
DeleteSPX is really starting to fucking piss me off... People who buy and hold and never look back, those are the only people I know that make money anymore, they don't stress, don't have any trading costs, no taxes, nothing. easy stress free and they do better than 99% of active money managers. An infinite amount of money can be created out of thin air, and Central Banks just told us they will do this to protect asset prices, so why the hell would anyone want to hold cash or be short stocks especially in a massive buyback environment? There, i just needed to blow off some steam
ReplyDeletep.s., am pissed off because I'm always looking at shorting instead of going massively long, everytime. This end of day rally was my last straw.
DeleteThere is something very wrong with your approach when you are so angry and look for explanation FED, QE etc. Do not worry there will be more to the downside.
DeleteI hear you... shorting at the right time is the hardest thing to do, I learned my lesson too, cost money let me tell you. But if you right the reward it big and quick. Or get rich quick, same idea, never easy. But relatively speaking equity markets provide the least difficult opportunity to do it... it can be learned. My advise is this : don’t bet a lot on shorting, if you are right then small bet can bring you nice profit. And if you are wrong, not big deal. Good luck
ReplyDeleteIm sorry but I am an old trader investor and if you want to make $$ trading / investing you MUST be as prepared to buy and sell.......especially with QE...I agree with Krasi we see 3000 by S&P in next 1-2 years so selling is against the trend BUT surprises are with the trend. Good luck my friend :)
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts on Palladium Futures?
ReplyDelete