TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the upper trend line tested twice with finished impulse and divergence. The gap from this week is the line in the sand to watch. As long as it holds continuation higher is expected.
Intermediate term - in the resistance zone with divergences and late in the cycle.
Long term - wave B/X running for IV from 2009. If I am wrong it is an impulse wave 1.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same weak market breadth with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero with bigger divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - double top.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - trend line hit and divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergence.
HURST CYCLES
Day 20 for the second daily cycle. One surprising scenario is we have shorter 20 week cycle and the second one is running.
Week 15 for the 20 week cycle. Another count with shorter 18 month cycles possible.
Thanks Krasi. I do not understand the second 20 week cycle is running.
ReplyDeleteAt week 15 the 20 week cycle is mature and should turn lower with sharp decline.
DeleteIf we see the indexes continue higher most likely we have already short 20 week cycle low(see for example XLF or DJT). This will mean we have 1-2-3 of c running for B or X... probably another 4-6 weeks higher to around 3050.
The move next week will be important for this bullish case we should see small pullback and acceleration above this trend line(first chart) for 3/c. for the bearish case we should see impulse lower.
In this case, B/X would be finished in May and sp500 will go down around 2200 in wave C in July August for 20w/40w/18m/4years cycle low ?
DeleteThis is the case with longer 18 month cycles and a low late 2019 early 2020 - the chart above.
DeleteHow come you don't mention anything about the possibility of 4-6 weeks higher and reaching 3050 in any of your charts? They all seem to go as high as 2925 and then down?
DeleteBefore I was always showing alternate scenario if I am wrong. - The comments - EW is stupid, confusing always up or down, you will be always right, just see the the troll below:) So I have stopped explaining several counts.
DeleteThe count is ambiguous instead of showing 2-3-4 counts I am showing just one what I think it is.
It might go up or it might go down. Great, sign me up !
ReplyDeleteNo need to sign up it is for free, but there is paid services out there if you want to sign up. They can tell you the same for 100 bucks per month. Maybe this will make you feel more comfortable.
DeleteGreat answer....I totally agree with you Krasi....some people are just rude and ignorant...
ReplyDelete3038 is the 261.8% fib
ReplyDeletei agree by the summer but im thinking march lows have to be tested
DeleteCrude oil is at 61%, now to 30-35 according to your long term update ?
ReplyDeleteYes, when the current move is over one more leg down roughly to 35.
DeleteAt the moment I think we have 3/c so patience.
Hi Krasi, Just a request to you to not change what you post based on criticism from the trolling here. Your blog is appreciated by many and the text is easier follow when you have the other possibility shown in the chart. Hope you will go back to the way you originally showed more than one option in the charts to align with the possibilities.
ReplyDeleteI think the same
DeleteThank you
ReplyDeleteHi Krasi. It's a good idea to indicate many options on the chart: if the market goes up, goes down or sideways. It's really helpful and this way you will never be wrong. You're a genius.
ReplyDeleteBest regards
You've a sad life trolling a free blog.
DeleteThe reason why people krasi give because he knows he will get back more thats the secret
DeleteFirst twisting my forecast, now I have to justify for something what I do not do.... the trolls are real geniuses.
DeleteWith this comment you are just showing how ignorant you are.
If you think this is the point being right or wrong you just do not have a clue how trading works. I am interesting in trading and not being right/wrong. I know that you do not make difference - you are clueless amateur.
are you talking to me krasi?
DeleteNo:)
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/Tn5sffP
ReplyDeleteHi krasi. Ok, i understand now. I thought it was important to you to make correct predictions on the markets. I was obviously wrong, sorry for that.
ReplyDeleteI really thought that your goal was to provide useful information for traders. Thank you for clariying.
That explains why this blog is so useless and pathetic for traders
NO, it is not important to make correct predictions. I do not try to look smart to sell subscriptions or to say I have the best forecasts. I do not care about that.
DeleteIt is important to find a setup to trade with low risk - this is the goal.
If you think that drawing some line up or down is a trade you do no know nothing about trading.
Guys this is getting out of hand, simple if you dont like the blog dont read it and let those that do enjoy in peace without negative / rude / smart comments....alternatively start your own and show us all how brilliant you are!!
ReplyDeleteThey appear at the high, trying to look smart with the same copy paste bullshit. The market reverses, they are the bag holders and crawl back in their holes. This is for the third time and they never learn from their mistakes.
DeleteThey are just great contrarian indicator:)
Krasi pl block these useless trolls. Dont let them ruin for others
ReplyDeleteDo not pay them attention... this is for the third time. On every top the same copy paste crap trying to look smart and always wrong.
DeleteP.S. Curious what happen to the guy with DJ 30k without correction... very vocal late 2017.
https://imgur.com/a/M7ppWr8
ReplyDeletei am expecting a drop but not to big
ReplyDeleteI expect at least 38% retracement.
Deletei own abscene amout of spxs average 21.75 im expexting minimum march lows but that would be great if that happens thanks for your fantastic blog.
DeleteWhat range are you taking the .38% for krasi? Thank you
DeleteLooks like 2680
ReplyDeleteChart1
ReplyDeleteAh yes, that was pretty clear - thanks
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/2P0zepp
ReplyDeleteComing up against long term uptrend line we might hit 2930 just my opinion
One more hit of the trend line(first chart) with divergences.
DeleteWill attempt a short near the close tonight if ES around 2820/22 , which I see as resistance .
ReplyDeleteStill have a nagging feeling that a retrace in Boeing above $390 will take INDU back to the all time high and drag spx with it .
Short looks good now - NDX RUT DAX all look like finishing the fifth wave from 25.03
DeleteNo need to go all in, you can open 1/2 or 1/3 position and add on Monday if the indexes open lower.
er meant to say 2920!
ReplyDeleteHi all ! Maybe Krasi should take a break from the markets. When you've been wrong for a long time, sometimes it's a good idea to stop trading, breathe some fresh air, and then come back stronger.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you all think ? Personaly, that's what I do when my trading is atrocious. We all know Krasi has been doing pretty crappy trades lately but I'm sure he will regain his skills soon.
he dont give trades dummy he just give his opinion if your so good put your picks on the board instead of hiding behind your fake name
Deletewhy are you so rude ? yes, my trading has been embarassing lately, like Krasi, but I'm sure it wil get better with all the advice on this blog. noboby is perfect so no need to be rude. Thank you
DeleteYou're the one who's Rude you keep saying stupid Stuff on the blog what you're saying is meant as an insult in my opinion You say some stupid every other day on this
DeleteStart reading for a change. Who says that I trade every small line which I draw up or down?
DeleteHave you heard about trading system/trading plan?
Full of clueless amateurs, which think they are very smart.... and always at the top.
"my trading has been embarassing lately, like Krasi"!?!?!?
DeleteThe trolls with new highs of their lies - forecasts which I did not made, trades which I did not made.