Short term - as long as we do not see impulsive break below the trend line/MA200/gap/support I expect one more high.
Intermediate term - nothing new.... up and down around the resistance levels and divergences.
Long term - one more leg lower to finish wave IV from 2009. Decline in three waves and a low in Q1.2020 will fit better with cycles.
I do not know how to count an impulse, but if I am wrong it is wave 1/V.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - weakness most of the indicators with divergences, the next bigger move is lower.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - oversold a lot of complacency again.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergence.
HURST CYCLES
The average cycle length for 40 week cycle is something like 32-36 weeks. High-to-high analysis - if you count from top to top we are at week 30. For example the previous 40 week cycle high was from the Jan.2018 high to the September.2018 high with length 34 weeks. So this high looks more and more like 40 week cycle degree and when the declines begins it will be for 40 week cycle low, or decline for a few months without a pause several weeks for 20 week cycle low.
The next question is the Dec.2018 low 18 month cycle low or not(longer or shorter 18 month cycles)? The longer it takes the more likely is that the scenario below is playing out - 4 year cycle low in Q1.2020.
Day 29 nearing the top of the current daily cycle.
Week 17.... I think the first 20 week cycle low is behind us and the coming high is of 40 week cycle degree.
Central banks are funneling trillions of dollars directly into the stock market. Your count is based upon logic, it has no place with reality, unfortunately. The eventual collapse will be much worse than the Great Depression, but no time soon
ReplyDeleteFor every bull market there is some excuse why this time is different. Now it is different because central banks control it - they do not control anything. It is never different it is always the same - human greed and stupidity.
DeleteThe market has nothing to do with logic or central banks or what so ever , it is all about emotions. My counts measure this emotions not logic and I do not care about news, central banks or any other fundamental crap.
You are masterful in your attempt, tho
ReplyDeleteYes, I have to reconsider and say baaaa with all the other sheep:))))
DeleteWait how did this work the previous two times?
Krasi, you say decline in three waves and a low in Q1.2020 (C wave) but C wave is always in 5 waves (1-2-3-4-5), not in 3
ReplyDeleteYes, I just do not put all possible labels just simplifying with B for corrective wave and C final wave.... lower is lower. When we see it, it could be impulse C or zig-zag for Y or E triangle.
DeleteOk, then 3 options: B, X, D(triangule). I do not see more options
ReplyDeleteYes, but this is theory nothing more. Lower is lower, important will be time - when to expect important low.
DeleteSo if it's B we have to see C to the doun in 5 waves?
ReplyDeleteYes, the "problem" is cycles are starting to point more in the other direction 3 wave decline lasting longer.
DeleteSo you see A in 3 B in 5 and you wait for C in 3?
ReplyDeleteI do not see 5 for B, I see corrective wave. The two options for the decline are discussed above.
DeleteAny news on gold Krasi ?
ReplyDeleteNot much new... I expect 4 year cycle low sometimes this year. The decline which begun should be the last one. The patten is not very clear... it could be triangle so something around 1220 for E.
DeleteJust watching how the decline will develop.
Krasi thanks for every week update, please may I know if Elliott wave is proven analysis, because from DEC low, at every step EW analysis failed. I see now many analyst are getting bullish with EW counts saying ES can go to 3100. I really don't know if I have to believe in EW anymore?
ReplyDeleteStruggling to believe in it now as well. A top on this correction has been called by many EW experts for a while, I'm sure all with strong belief that their interpretations are correct, which is totally fine. However, do you not have to admit, even with measuring emotions, it may not be the best tool to use in modern TA. Sick of bulls riding this wave up :(
Delete"At every step EW analysis failed"?!?!?! Someone's wrong analysis has failed not EW.
DeleteMost of this analyst and experts are just clueless... some with paid services some with popular blogs(I do no talk only about EW). They just sound "smart" for those who do not have any experience. Such "experts" are the reason to start learning and making analysis in the first place because I did not want to depend on clueless guys.
I can talk for my count - multi month a-b-c higher. Four months later I do not see a reason to change it because it is playing out. What went "wrong" - late January I was expecting to see the b wave. What happened - I think we have b wave from 05.Feb to 08.March and high probability for stealth 20 week cycle low. Very tricky correction with higher high and low(see XLY or NDX better visible) and following overlapping looking like possible ED. After the March low most of the time I am showing higher. First ED because of the overlapping and in the last three weeks simple impulse for c.
Very well hidden correction for the so called EW "experts". They do not have an idea and what are they saying - as I wrote above baaa with all the sheep:) because it is easier, it is simple to call it impulse it is strong and next target is 3100. When they fail again do not tell me EW has failed:)
EW is great tool and it is working fine. Do not blame the tool for wrong counts. If you want to learn it you will need patience and years practicing it. If you do not like it do not use it plenty of other tools.
EW projected DEC low will hit roughly 2100, it didn't hit (first miss), second after reaching 2600, EW said we will have pullback as we are done 5 waves, didn't happen (second miss) and from then on till today I can't see a red week. I was waiting on sidelines at 2350, jumped in at 2440 and sold out at 2600 thinking we will get pullback which didn't come till now.
ReplyDeleteEven if we have a recession and stocks go down by 35%, from 3100 we will hit 2105, so in order for your long term chart to be true we have to hit recession.
Where should I start.... the same like above. Who is this EW?!?!?!?! Obviously someone with wrong count.... of course the tool is wrong and not the "expert" failed.
DeleteMy "EW" did not projected 2100, my "EW" does not see impulse at 2600 and after that I see four red weeks, but maybe I am color-blind.
I will be rude - look in the mirror and you will see who failed, no it is not EW.
I see the same mistake over and over - most "traders" do not make a difference between analysis, trade trigger, trading plan.
- first analysis - you think at 2600 we have finished impulse. Wrong analysis - at 2600 there is nothing, first possible impulse is at 2670. As I wrote drawing some line on a chart up or down is not a trade.
- trading plan - what you want to trade, why, how to build position, when you are wrong and what to do in this case etc. This should be multi month a-b-c and after 3 weeks without any sign you sell everything expecting hypothetical corrective wave which has not even begun based on wrong analysis - this is just poor trading plan and has nothing to do with EW.
- trading trigger - you need some simple rules what triggers a trade and activates your trading plan. No, this is not someone's finished wrong count. This is in case of EW reversal with impulse and corrective retracement. Nothing similar around 2600 - poor execution without a signal.
Let just change EW with cycles - in March we saw two red weeks 11-13 and we did not saw continuation lower for 20 week cycle low - failed.
Look at 2017 following your logic sell all long positions the middle of the year expecting decline for a few months for 18 month cycle - epic fail.
Following the "logic" the conclusion is cycles is even bigger garbage than EW....
My approach - EW gives you the pattern(it must showing finished pattern) and for trigger I use usually the price closing below MA10 which means the daily cycle turned lower. The trading plan depend on the situation.
You want to maximize profits - here is what I would do.
- the analysis - first possible impulse if you has first grade and can count to 5 is 18.January 2670 not 2600.
- trading plan - multi month up, week 4 way too early for some big correction, do not trade waves b or 4(choppy unpredictable patterns) so the only low risk option for trade is to reduce the position for example 1/3 max 1/2 and add later when the correction is over to maximize profits.
- trigger - is not activated it is too early, but lets say the big red candle from 22.Jan triggers trade reduce the position with a 1/3. After this reversal candle there is no continuation. After reversal there should be 1 day pause not more.... maybe 2. What we have is 5 days big nothing no continuation no break of MA10(the same game 22.03-28.03).
After the second day it is clear there is no reversal so you can add to the long position again using the hourly chart for timing or waiting for a break out of the range.
EW count is not a trade it just gives the frame/pattern. Look back and think what you can do better next time. Blaming EW or any other tool will not improve your trading.
P.S who says the SP500 will hit 3100? the same "EW" with wrong count from the beginning? Funnymentals seriously? You think the market is moved by fundamentals?
Thank you for your explaination Krasi, but at the end of the day EW analysis is pretty much worthless in real life trading.
ReplyDeleteWe never know in what wave we are until after the fact, making it useless and a distraction in real time trading. I'm sure you will agree with that.
I will agree that you do not have a clue how to use EW. It is not the tool stupid, the stupid monkey can not use it.
DeleteI had this discussions about EW thousand times it is getting boring.... the same over and over.
I always ask the same - which tools are you using which are so much better than EW?
The ussual answer is..... silence.
Suggestion: you can't draw a picture telling one story and drop one or two words indicating that the opposite might happen. I do also believe that EW is very imprecise. You were calling for a retest of the lows much earlier and you really should not deny it. Please accept this criticism from someone that appreciate your work!
ReplyDelete"You were calling for a retest of the lows much earlier and you really should not deny it" -FALSE
DeleteIn March I was talking about corrective wave b and 20 week cycle low which has nothing to do with retest of the lows.
I am talking from the beginning about multi month rally and the earliest time window for 4 year cycle low July-August. So clear false statement and I will deny it. When I am wrong I say it I do not have problems with my ego.
"I do also believe that EW is very imprecise"
Which tools are more precise than EW? Which tool is forward looking and not lagging?
I have the feeling most guys expect that analysis should show them the exact path, every turn and twist. Neither EW nor any other tool can do that. All you need to know is if the direction is still up/down is there signs for reversal. EW can do that very good... other tools too.
For example this week - is it really so important if I am wrong or not, if this wave iv/3 or 4 or what ever it is - NO.
The direction is still up, the pattern is not finished, there is no reversal signs - this is the information I need and EW can provide it.
I am getting really tired to explain how trading works......
Thanks Krasi for your comments. Please may I know how to read your short term chart, EW says we will get pullbacks before we go up and these days I don't see that.
ReplyDeleteI was wrong it was just iv/3 not 4.
DeleteDoes that alter your count to the upside?
DeleteNo, we should see 4-5 before the pattern is finished.
Deletelooks like we will hit 2950 krasi your thoughts
ReplyDeletepossibly 3010
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts are the same like last several weeks we need one more down 4 and up 5 for finished pattern.
DeleteWhen we see 4 I can measure 5 currently using the usual Fibo levels is 3010:)
How did you come up with that?
i just drew a line up
DeleteYou can take a line from the first peak to the second peak, 3000
ReplyDeleteThe same with the two bottom point
You see trumpet structure
Yes, I see it.... this whole impulse from the March low looks strange now like consisting of zig-zags
DeleteTriangule expansive ?
ReplyDeleteIt is possible if we see decline in three waves....
DeleteThen wave E to 2100-2200 for q1 2020 because wave E is the longest.
DeleteThis is one option which I am watching.... cycles will look better
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/d6VLPON
ReplyDeleteIt is looking like expanding ending diagonal, which means drop to around 2860 and higher to around 3000.
DeleteI thought people were deluded thinking of 3000??
ReplyDeleteEW says 3100 see above:)))) and I am wrong anyway:)))
DeleteWhy do you keep coming back again and again if it is "pathetic and disgusting"? :-)
ReplyDeletePlease move on... we are not insisting that you stay. :-)
If we see 3100 in may, shortest cycles ?
ReplyDeleteI do not know what you mean with shortest cycles.... The market should make a high of 40 week cycle degree and turn lower.
DeleteThe indexes look tired only the tech sector holding them at elevated levels.
I am not sure about 3000 and now everybody with 3100 ??? Where comes this number from???
I kind of agree though, in this environment EW is not a good tool for picking tops. All we can wait for is an impulsive decline at some stage be it 3000, 3050, 3100. Until that happens you're all wrong at the moment
ReplyDeleteThere is no tool suitable for picking tops. Trying to front run the market (nailing tops/bottoms) does not pay out in the long run.
Delete"All we can wait for is an impulsive decline" - Exactly if some one wants to short the market should wait for confirmation. When it turns lower the market will not crash for a day, there is enough time.
Well said, waiting is not a problem EW says we will hit 2100 sometime later. If its not right now how to know when to buy when we have impulsive selling.
ReplyDeleteWhen you see finished pattern C if you expect impulsive selling, extreme market breadth, indicators with divergences and the price in the time window for important low.
DeleteThose who say all the time EW does not work, do not see the forest for the trees.
DeleteCorrective waves are difficult and not getting right some b wave or 4 or other corrective structure does not make the tool worthless.
Important is the message - it is corrective structure and you know what to expect next.
market is trading over 120 percent of gdp
ReplyDeleteI had time to look at the charts closely..... waves 4-5 will look great for finished pattern, but I have this bad taste in my mouth..... it feels wrong. For example NDX from the March low two legs higher with the same size and in the middle 38% retracement - classic a-b-c. SP500 the same just the retracement is 50%. It feels like zig-zag and not an impulse. The whole count from the low like w-x-y... by the way DAX has this look and XOI/XLE sector which I watch for hints too.
ReplyDeleteI am watching crude oil/XLE for hints because of high correlation since Jan.2018 and for me XLE has reversed - https://imgur.com/a/eyLpmlv
The same count works for the stock indexes with w-x-y.
I hate the corrective patterns.... you can not be sure until you see reversal with impulse.
With 4-5/c you can take a risk to nail the top, with this count it is prudent to wait for confirmation.
Looking the indicators next move should be test of MA50. If it is a zig-zag we can talk about wave 4, ED, last leg up 3000. If we see an impulse it is over.
The price is well above MA50/MA200 so do not expect crash.... no need to hurry with short trades. Wait for confirmation you will not miss much.
Krasi, if in this year or in 2020 there is going to be a 4 years low cycle, is it required that we see new lows below December?
ReplyDeleteI think theoretically there is now such condition. For example some are counting important low not 2009 but 2011. Not all agree with shorter cycles and they count nominal cycle 9 years -> 2002-2011-2020... hahaha now when you asked this count points to important low 2020 too:)))
DeleteFor me the only exceptions should be pattern which makes higher low.... triangle for example.
Currently gold is good example the decline which is running could finish with higher low and the pattern will look like triangle, but this is fine for 4 year cycle low - from this point the next big move(cycle) begins.
krasi 2840 gap has never been filled do you think we hit 2960 first before we drop your thoughts?
ReplyDeleteThe pullback I see is just wave 4 which should stay above 2840 so we should see 2960 first.
Delete