Weekly preview

Many are bearish seeing impulse lower etc. At major turning points all indices are moving in tandem and I do not see this now.
For example how do you count impulse for the DJ? The European indices do not follow lower. The move lower is too slow and this means the indices are still in the same pattern which started in March etc.

I expect to see intermediate term low 10w cycle low soon and higher for a few weeks. The short term forecast is difficult with the FED meeting next week which could cause short term volatility.



TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, nearing a low.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, I think we have major top. Close to intermediate term low.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - some are counting impulse, but it is more likely that we have another series of zig-zags. Very deep retracement so the possible patterns are flat and triangle.

Intermediate term - RUT how a triangle could look like.

Long term - RUT monthly I do not see impulse, I see completed double zig-zag most of the indices have this pattern, which is much worse than the b-wave I am showing.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the indices should be close to a low.
McClellan Oscillator - posible divergence after slightly oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - typical level for a low the 40-50 range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - close to the oversold level.
Fear Indicator VIX - making lower highs.
Advance-Decline Issues - making higher lows.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - expecting 5w/10w low probably next week.

Week 7 for the 20w cycle.
Long term we have 4 year cycle high and transition from up to down. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options.
If the 18m low was in late September than the indices are close to 40w low. The reaction from this low will confirm it or not. Currently I think the low was in the summer of 2021 on time.

Weekly preview

Last week the expectation was for move up and 5w high - we saw it this week, it is short cycle one week shorter. Now we should see decline into 10w low.... around FOMC looks interesting 8 weeks length.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, the intermediate term decline is not over.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, I think we have major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I think the indices are in a b-wave.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W.
Some corrective wave up is running which is the test of the high, but first we have to see intermediate term low.

Long term - NDX seems to show more clear picture. Pattern and cycles as I see them. RSI broke the trend line and clearly says the rally from March.2020 is over and now the broken trend line should be tested.
The alternate scenario is the c-wave has already started, but it does not fit so well with cycles.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week. It looks like corrective price action and not like reversal.
McClellan Oscillator - oscillating around zero and now heading lower.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal, but nothing convincing.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, but nothing convincing.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving higher, looks like zig-zag.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it seems we have 5w high a short cycle. The 5w lows - fit best on 8th of March and 12th of April.
Next we should see decline first in 20d low then 5w/10w low.

Week 6 for the 20w cycle.
Long term we have 4 year cycle high and transition from up to down. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options. Currently it seems the low was in summer on time.