Trading trigger - sell signal, the intermediate term decline is not over.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, I think we have major top.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I think the indices are in a b-wave.
Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W. Some corrective wave up is running which is the test of the high, but first we have to see intermediate term low.
Long term - NDX seems to show more clear picture. Pattern and cycles as I see them. RSI broke the trend line and clearly says the rally from March.2020 is over and now the broken trend line should be tested. The alternate scenario is the c-wave has already started, but it does not fit so well with cycles.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week. It looks like corrective price action and not like reversal.
McClellan Oscillator - oscillating around zero and now heading lower.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal, but nothing convincing.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, but nothing convincing.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving higher, looks like zig-zag.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it seems we have 5w high a short cycle. The 5w lows - fit best on 8th of March and 12th of April.
Next we should see decline first in 20d low then 5w/10w low.
Week 6 for the 20w cycle.
Long term we have 4 year cycle high and transition from up to down. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options. Currently it seems the low was in summer on time.
thank you, so we're in the C of the current B wave. If C is a 1.272 ext of A, that gets us to around the double bottom - 4170 on SPX?
ReplyDeleteThe most common extension is c=a which is around 4255.
DeleteThe next extension is 1.38 around 4160 or the two lows in March.
Drops are very cautious. Krasi is right. This market has to correct to way below to normalize the overgrowth. My take is 2400 level sometime by 2023 Mid.
ReplyDeleteare you forecasting intermediate bottom in about a week?
ReplyDeleteOr we saw it already
DeleteIf this is week 7 in a 20w cycle, does it mean it's 9-10w of choppy upside assuming 16w cycle length as average
DeleteIt is 16-18 weeks from low to low so not all of the remaining 10 weeks are higher.
DeleteMonthly candle says GTFO
ReplyDeleteEven in this case I expect some kind of bounce. There were plenty of highs to exit at good price.... distribution is running for almost a year.
Delete