Weekly preview

Now waiting to see if the analysis from last week will play out. If this is the case the indices are at 20w high and decline to a new low 40w low should follow. The alternate scenario is the low was in March and we saw this week the a-wave of a zig-zag higher.


TRADING
Trading trigger - still buy signal, which could change next week.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, I think we have major top which will be tested one more time. Intermediate term - turn from intermediate term high.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the same pattern, waiting to see if it will play out.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W.
b-wave should be completing and sharp c-wave should follow.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - oscillators turned lower, trend following are still up... so waiting for confirmation if we have intermediate term high.
McClellan Oscillator - turned lower after divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - hit overbought levels.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - touched overbought level and reversed.
Fear Indicator VIX - series of higher lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - touched overbought level and reversed.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - I think we have 20w high which divides better in 3x7w cycles instead of 2x10w.
Short term - the 20d cycle is not very clear, we should see decline into 20d/5w low.

Week 9 for the 20w cycle if we use the model on the chart above. In November RSI crossed the MA for 20w low now we see another cross higher for 20w high.
Long term we have 4 year cycle high and transition from up to down. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options. In both cases I expect highs echo from 2018.