Weekly preview

The decline is too slow to be a reversal. It is part of the same pattern probably starting from the low in March... unless we see some unexpected shock and sharp decline.
Last week I have shown the european indices(last chart) and this is the best fitting scenario at the moment - 40w low in March and now corrective pattern higher running for a few months.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, I think we have major top which is tested now.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - maybe zig-zag(w) and triangle(y) for a-wave and now in the middle of a b-wave.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W.
Some corrective wave up is running.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week. It looks like corrective price action and not like reversal.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turned lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - trying to turn lower.
Bullish Percentage - pointing lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - weak move up.
Advance-Decline Issues - pointing lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - very weak 20d high, this means there will be more to the downside. There is no clear low for the 5w cycle either. Most likely the longer cycle 10w is dominant.
If we push the previous significant low a few days later we can have some decent sequence highs-lows. In this case we have 5w low this week and next two weeks are higher for 5w high.

Week 5 for the 20w cycle. In November RSI crossed the MA for 20w low now we see another cross higher for 20w high.
Long term we have 4 year cycle high and transition from up to down. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options.
The current price action is in sync with the european indices or important low in March which means 18m low in July so switched the main cycle count accordingly.