Weekly preview

We have a decline, but weak so far and it looks corrective so no confirmation. Alternate if March was important low we will see more to the upside and now the indices are in some b-wave - shown using the European indices the last chart.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, I think we have major top which will be tested one more time. Intermediate term - turn from intermediate term high.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - waiting to see if the yellow pattern will play out. Alternate we have another zigzag higher and now the b-wave is running(green).

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W.
Waiting to see how the corrective move up will play out - if it is finished or it is a bigger zig-zag.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, but it is too early to say we have intermediate term high.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned up.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower, in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we saw decline most likely into 5w low. Next we should see 20d high in 1-4 days.

Week 10 for the 20w cycle. In November RSI crossed the MA for 20w low now we see another cross higher for 20w high.
Long term we have 4 year cycle high and transition from up to down. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options. In both cases I expect two highs echo from 2018.

The alternate scenario and 18m low in July - the European indices have one clear low and not three possible lows. The best cycle count is 18m low on schedule in July and 40w low 7.5 months later again on schedule. This means the index is moving up into 40w high with average length 7-8 months there is another 2-3 months until we see this high.