Aug 13, 2011

Weekly review / Седмичен преглед

There was one final sell off on Monday hitting the 61,8% retracement from thee July 2010 low and 50% retracement from the March 2009 bottom. One support level lower, but you can not catch a falling knife and you never can say at which support level the selling will stop.

The big picture has not changed.

Short term - there is more upside. I expect one or two green weeks. Best guess - SP500 will hit 38,5 retracement(~1200) pullback to support and another push higher to 50% retracement(~1240). Then the sell off should resume and test the lows.

The plan stays the same-initial bounce,retest of the lows,strong rally and another bear leg down.

When NYSE McClellan Oscillator hit such extremes bellow -100, there is always one more push lower on the indexes. So after this initial rebound I am expecting a lower low.

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