Aug 27, 2011

Weekly review / Седмичен преглед

Last week I have had no idea which way the indexes will move... positive week, no new lows or new highs... no new information strengthening bullish or bearish case.

The bigger picture has not changed - I think we will see one final low, which will be THE LOW for this move. First support level is 1100-1080, or it can extend all the way to major support 1020-1040 which is the 50% retracement from the 2009 bottom.
The alternate scenario is we have already saw the bottom... but I not buying it.. it does not feel right. Even if I am wrong we will see deep retracement which will be good buying opportunity.
Why am I skeptical? - The market breadth indicators do not show me that another move on the upside has began. Look at the histogram on the chart - its positive for several days but the indexes are moving sideways. That means for me this a corrective move, the histogram is reseting from oversold level and it will make another trough low with divergence.

Short term I expect 2-3 days on the upside. Target 50% retracement level around 1220.
My initial expectation was rally to 38,2% retracement,pullback and another rally to 50% retracement level. The big guys stretched the pullback all the way down to support at 1120 and many are wondering is this a double bottom. Now I think they will stretch the price beyond the "triangle" which all bears are watching. The bulls will think great double bottom and the bears will close their shorts thinking this is wave 2 up.
They have played the same game before the huge sell off and I have changed my scenario several times just to see my initial plan playing out. This time I am not buying it and will trust my indicators.

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