Mar 25, 2013

Short term update

UPDATE: OUT of longs at 1552.... I think the triangle has mutated into bear flag. If I am right the price will not exceed 1560 before a move lower to support.

UPDATE: Reverse the trade at 1552....
Trading system signal (swing trading) - Direction: UP | Last entry signal: at SP500=1552 on 25.03.2013 | Stop at: 1548

UPDATE: Now It looks bearish breaking the triangle to the downside....
Trading system signal (swing trading) - Direction: DOWN | Last entry signal: at SP500=1548 on 25.03.2013 | Stop at: 1556

15min chart of SP500 - fake break out and than move back into the triangle. Just 1 point is missing for a touch of the lower trend line. Again in wait and see mode. It still continues to look more bullish than bearish (see the MACD and the histogram on the daily chart, which is reseting). Worst case which I see the triangle breaking to the down side and move lower to support ~1525.
P.S. to be all fair and objective 4 points loss(1559-1555) for the system - open at 1559 than the price moved back into the triangle and broke bellow the last minor highs at 1557 and 1556.


  1. krasi, so is your system back to neutral again?

    1. Yes, too much crosses of EMA50, but there is such moments:) I think all this is a part of a toping process that is the reason for so many fakes.
      Usually there is no so many signals, when a swing is running it could last weeks or months before a signal in the opposite direction.

  2. Krasi, I noticed you have late June as a high point for SPX. I was curious what your reasoning is? if there is a major Hurst cycle there? I also have some timing work pointing toward the end of June. Thanks.

    1. If you mean the weekly cycle chart... I do not really project time and levels, I am just projecting shape. I expect correction and new high the rest - time,levels etc. will be adjusted with the development of the moves.
      In fact if I must point a time frame, I would say to expect the bottom for the correction in June.
      5 weeks till now+2-3 weeks topping+5-7 weeks correction (average length) -> the second 20 week cycle and the bottom of the 40 week cycle.
      There is one other cycle - 1 Year cycle which is not a Hurst cycle. Since 2009 the bottoms were in July.Once it was one month later in August and once one month earlier in June the last one in 2012. So this cycle is pointing for a bottom in June too.

      There is alternate scenario the first 20 week cycle is still running and it will produce a pullback for several weeks and the next 20 week cycle will move the indexes higher again. Than the whole action could stretch into Mai-June. Currently we are in week 19 and it is getting a little bit stretched....

    2. It is interesting - there is 1 Year cycle between the tops too:) It is between 50 and 56 weeks and now we are at week 52. It says expect top in April.