Dec 15, 2013

Time to be brave or stupid...

Take a look at the two charts bellow and ask yourself - is it time to be brave or stupid.
A bull will say be brave buy,buy,buy... the bears are stupid they have missed such a great opportunity. Ok that was the past, buy now and expect what? The prices to go perpendicular... at this point I prefer to be called stupid and miss "Christmas rally", another 5% what ever. I prefer to be smart and not too greedy and take my chips of the table.

I wrote about mania... well it can always get crazier:) - Zerohedge Peak "Greater Fools"
Latest Investor's Intelligence survey:
- Bull/Bear ratio at 4 - the highest value ever recorded... yes you have read it right.
- Bears 14,3% - the only time "bears" have been less than now was in 1987... that does not ended good.
I ask myself is there sellers left? It looks like everybody are at one side of the boat fully invested. Is there buyers left?

The chart speaks for it self - DJ reached the upper trend line, double MACD divergence, double RSI divergence, a lot of similarities with previous tops, peak sentiment....
Is see three possible scenarios:
- the index continues higher and the divergence are erased. For that to happen the trajectory should become even more steeper,that means perpendicular... 90 degree rise with this sentiment... good luck with that.
- the index crawls slowly sideways for months even longer until the indicators are cleared, the fundamentals to catch up with price... ok than start praying, that all this margin debt do not start unwinding.
- what history says - excess mania and greed in bull markets is being purged through very sharp 10%-20% and short living several weeks correction. That is my scenario - I will bet that human beings are the same stupid and greedy idiots.
Pick your scenario and be brave or stupid:)

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