Dec 20, 2013

Weekly review

Short term view - more upside with targets 1830 or 1860.
Intermediate term view - I still think that the next bigger move is a correction.

This is the last post for the year, the next one will be in the second week of January. I wish all of you Merry Christmas, Happy New Year and enjoy the holidays:)

Last week I wrote expect test of the highs or marginal new high. Given the strength, the holidays with low volume... I think the scenario with new ATH is 100% sure. Some indexes like XLF which were missing the final wave will finish it in the next week or two...

For the short term there is more upside and I see two cases, for the intermediate term I still think that we will see sharp correction.
- case one A-B-C move with target around 1830. Interesting is if you remember the EW charts target was 1829 - coincidence??? I will take my hat off to EW if SP500 top out at 1830:) That is my preferred scenario... but we will just watch the charts they will tell us what is going on.
- case two an impulse will develop with target 1860 - this target matches with the upper purple trend line(see the daily chart) and reverse H&S with neckline 1810(see the hourly chart)
If we see in the next two days another huge bar 20 points expect impulse case two 1860, if not case one 1830.

Short term - A-B-C is shown but it could be something else... reverse H&S? Do not think to much there is more upside for the short term.

Intermediate term - I find it interesting that both measures point exactly to the upper trend lines - 1830 yellow and 1860 purple.

Long term - soon we will know if I am right or wrong. The indexes are moving sideways for 5 weeks and I think they are topping for the intermediate term. Just one final high left...

The Market Breadth Indicators - some indicators are weakening... huge bar SP500 closing ATH, 3 points bellow ATH and yet Bullish Percentage does not react to the upside,Percent of Stocks above MA50 at 66 not even close to the previous highs. It is not normal - weakness? I think this rally is soon dead. Playing with ATH and only 66% of the shares are above MA50 this is a joke.
McClellan Oscillator - reseted its mildly oversold levels.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.... reached oversold levels. I hope it will stay there for several weeks.
Bullish Percentage - barely moved up and still on sell.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - October-November-December highs huge divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - it was overbought and pullback was expected. Just higher low nothing more.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range no strength, but not enough weakness.
Put/Call ratio - no more call buyers?
Percent of Stocks above MA200 - I would expect to see it at 90% not at 60% with such massive rally for more than a year.

After the first the first strong candle from MA50 I wrote that this is the low for the 40 day cycle. Now it is confirmed. I think the 20 week cycle is the dominant and we will see straddled-troughs, with other words something like double top or H&S.


  1. Thanks for your wonderful blog Krasi. Look forward to reading more of your postings next year! Have a great holiday!

  2. Wishing you and your family plenty of laughter and a very Merry Christmas. May this joyful and blessed season greet you with health and happiness. GBU always.....