Dec 19, 2014

Happy holidays!!!!

Happy holidays!!!!!
The next weekly review will be posted on 10-11 January.

Currently - the move up and how high it moved is not a surprise, you can see the last post, but for two todays.... yeah completely normal market... really:)
If you think the US indexes are volatile... I am trading the DAX it is like on steroids in the last months moving 10%-20% just like that.... it is crazy.
With this volatility when one side gives up eventually we will see either sharp correction or a blow off phase... great forecast:))))
As long as the price stays below the last high the plan stays the same. Looking at the scary huge bars you can only think of a new high... if the indexes continue to move this way as an impulse above the high I can think of only that the blow off phase has begun. The next 1-2 weeks will show us what is going on.


  1. happy holidays Krasi. do you think EEM has bottomed?

    1. It should be only a short term bottom. In the post Long term I have warned that EEM is close to a bottom, but only for a wave 2 before continue lower.
      See below what Carnap wrote. Emerging market were hit badly with rising USD and lower prices for commodities so it will last for a while until we see a bottom.

  2. u r an expert at hedging!

    it is obvious that a blow off move has begun....what is ur target for the top?.....everything else u say is meaningless!

    1. I will always show two different scenarios. I am interested in short and intermediate term and conditions are changing fast. I must be ready to switch between bull/bear and scenarios in matter of seconds. Take for example the last bottom - I said higher to around 2060. SP500 moved higher - who cares I am on the right said and it is time to adjust the plan because something different is going on. Business as usual - you do not make money nailing the exact bottom/top you make money when you are on the right side.

      No it is not obvious that blow off has begun. Personally I think we will see a fake break out and blow off phase will not start with all the dip buyers on board.
      I do not know how high, I just follow the moves. If some one tells you that he knows how high a bubble will move is just lying/guessing.

    2. Carnap:
      because of the deteriorating market breath the US Indices are running into more and more trouble.
      I suppose we will see shakeout move in January or beginning February next year.
      Please consider SPX, DJI are running in a wave 5 on cycle degree.
      On the macro economic side there is a risk for a deflationary shock: declining Brent and WTI price, declining industrial metals, week AUD/US asn.
      Coal and steel industry, utility companies, exploration industry will review investments and if economic growth in China and US is dampening then world economy could run into trouble.

    3. Thanks again!
      Interesting info and fundamental perspective:)

  3. Carnap:
    By Proxy of Krasi I like to say that as long as the deflationary scenario is running that means weak commodities esp. declining oil and copper, weak AUD/US, high yields under pressure, strong trend move of US Dollar Index asn. there will be no chance for a trend reversal in EEM.
    After a short bounce I suppose we will see more to the downside target area iShare MSCI EEM 35,34-28,84.