Dec 6, 2014

Weekly review

Short term view - we should see a pullback next week.
Intermediate term view - pullback after a short term top and another move higher.

The indexes continue crawling higher after 25 points drop, but nothing really worth mentioning.... boring week overall.

The same charts updated...

Short term - if you zoom and look at the shorter time frames it looks like one final push higher is left, but it should be short living. You see where the confirmation is for a something to the downside - around 2060.

Than a pullback should begin....

Intermediate term - nothing new... alternate scenario we will see the top next week and subsequent "Christmas rally" will only test the top(green). But first I want to see a move bellow 2000 to think about the alternate scenario.

Long term - I will post extra something about the long term...

The Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week. A lot of divergences, a pullback is due, no major sell signals for now.
McClellan Oscillator - bellow the zero, ignoring up moves.
McClellan Summation Index - still buy signal, but ready to cross bellow the MA.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal. This swing is near it's end. That does not exclude another push higher end of December early January.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - small divergence... pullback.
Fear Indicator VIX - BB are again very close... expect the volatility rise probably after the holidays.
Advance-Decline Issues - cumulative AD starts diverging...
NYSE New Highs-New Lows - lower high and divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA200 - only 54% above MA200 on ATH... weak internals.

Day 36 of the current 40 day cycle. I think next week we should see a move lower.

Week 8 of the current 20 week and 40 week cycle. Cycles continue to support the plan so far.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Daily chart nothing new. Weekly chart - we have week 6 of a setup. The completion of a setup will fit the plan perfect.

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