Dec 19, 2014

Happy holidays!!!!

Happy holidays!!!!!
The next weekly review will be posted on 10-11 January.

Currently - the move up and how high it moved is not a surprise, you can see the last post, but for two todays.... yeah completely normal market... really:)
If you think the US indexes are volatile... I am trading the DAX it is like on steroids in the last months moving 10%-20% just like that.... it is crazy.
With this volatility when one side gives up eventually we will see either sharp correction or a blow off phase... great forecast:))))
As long as the price stays below the last high the plan stays the same. Looking at the scary huge bars you can only think of a new high... if the indexes continue to move this way as an impulse above the high I can think of only that the blow off phase has begun. The next 1-2 weeks will show us what is going on.
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8 comments:

  1. AnonymousDec 20, 2014, 5:48:00 AM

    happy holidays Krasi. do you think EEM has bottomed?

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    Replies
    1. KrasiDec 24, 2014, 7:29:00 AM

      It should be only a short term bottom. In the post Long term I have warned that EEM is close to a bottom, but only for a wave 2 before continue lower.
      See below what Carnap wrote. Emerging market were hit badly with rising USD and lower prices for commodities so it will last for a while until we see a bottom.

      Delete
  2. AnonymousDec 21, 2014, 4:37:00 AM

    u r an expert at hedging!

    it is obvious that a blow off move has begun....what is ur target for the top?.....everything else u say is meaningless!

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    Replies
    1. KrasiDec 24, 2014, 8:04:00 AM

      I will always show two different scenarios. I am interested in short and intermediate term and conditions are changing fast. I must be ready to switch between bull/bear and scenarios in matter of seconds. Take for example the last bottom - I said higher to around 2060. SP500 moved higher - who cares I am on the right said and it is time to adjust the plan because something different is going on. Business as usual - you do not make money nailing the exact bottom/top you make money when you are on the right side.

      No it is not obvious that blow off has begun. Personally I think we will see a fake break out and blow off phase will not start with all the dip buyers on board.
      I do not know how high, I just follow the moves. If some one tells you that he knows how high a bubble will move is just lying/guessing.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousDec 25, 2014, 10:53:00 AM

      Carnap:
      because of the deteriorating market breath the US Indices are running into more and more trouble.
      I suppose we will see shakeout move in January or beginning February next year.
      Please consider SPX, DJI are running in a wave 5 on cycle degree.
      On the macro economic side there is a risk for a deflationary shock: declining Brent and WTI price, declining industrial metals, week AUD/US asn.
      Coal and steel industry, utility companies, exploration industry will review investments and if economic growth in China and US is dampening then world economy could run into trouble.

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    3. KrasiDec 25, 2014, 1:58:00 PM

      Thanks again!
      Interesting info and fundamental perspective:)

      Delete
  3. AnonymousDec 22, 2014, 9:28:00 PM

    Carnap:
    By Proxy of Krasi I like to say that as long as the deflationary scenario is running that means weak commodities esp. declining oil and copper, weak AUD/US, high yields under pressure, strong trend move of US Dollar Index asn. there will be no chance for a trend reversal in EEM.
    After a short bounce I suppose we will see more to the downside target area iShare MSCI EEM 35,34-28,84.

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