Apr 11, 2015

Weekly review

Short term view - I think retracement and than up again.
Intermediate term view - more time is needed the pattern to be finished before a meaningful correction.

As I wrote I do not believe in the bearish case and the indexes turned up on Monday as expected. Given the strength I think the preferred scenario for a ATH before something meaningful to the downside has now much high probability.

Nothing new long term or intermediate term, short term slight variations are possible.

Short term - preferred scenario something like 50% retracement to around 2080 +-5 points the support zone 2076-2090.
If we see a deeper retracement to around 2060 probably we have a triangle.
Surprising scenario will be if we see a move below 2030-2040.

Intermediate term - no change.

Long term - no change.

The Market Breadth Indicators - are now more bullish... but they look weak and I suspect will show divergences and weakness when we see higher high.
McClellan Oscillator - above the zero line, but does not show strength... long term lower highs.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal, but looks weak for now.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - probably will reach 75 and will make another lower high.
Fear Indicator VIX - outside the BB... I expect retracement up the indexes down.
Advance-Decline Issues - climbing up... but I expect another lower high.

The next 40 day cycle is running.... only the bears were surprised around the bottom:)

Week 10 of the current 20 week cycle.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Day 4 of a setup... there is high probability that it will be finished.

I think Russell2000 shows more clear picture and the count says the same one move lower and one move higher... which is the same like SP500 B->C or triangle what so ever.
The current leg up is choppy and overlapping and it makes more sense if we see one more move lower to finish wave 4.

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