Apr 26, 2015

Weekly review

Short term view - more to the upside.
Intermediate term view - after a new ATH(SP500) a correction to begin for a few weeks.

At last it looks like we have only one scenario left - the expected new ATH before a correction.

SP500 looks like it will make a new ATH Nasdaq celebrating new closing high and waiting for a new ATH... great but the other indexes DJI, DJT, Russell200, NYSE does not look bullish, market breadth does not look healthy, the cycles are mature... so I think SP500 and Nasdaq will make new highs the other indexes probably not and correction will follow.

Everybody is watching the wedge/ED targets 2150 and even 2250 so I think the formation will end with a surprise. Two options - the first the prices move much higher, but given the other indexes, indicators,cycles and so on this looks less probable the pattern is running for very long time 5 months already another month or two is not realistic. The other option - the pattern to be completed but short of its target and reversing suddenly and violently.
Do not expect that "everybody" is right... the markets do not work this way.

I will watch closely 2130-2135 for possible top, move below 2090 will confirm that a move to the downside has begun and this time it should be of a higher degree not just a short living pullback.

Short term - I can not see something else than a new ATH. The measurements are pointing to the 2130-2135 area. This is 20 points lower than the wedge/ED upper boundary and it will look great to surprise most of the traders. The reversal should be sharp... so you must act fast.

Intermediate term - now only the preferred scenarios has left.

Long term - no change.

The Market Breadth Indicators - does not look healthy. The SP500 is few points shy of new ATH and instead of the indicators going through the roof all a see is lower highs and indicators in the middle of their ranges.... where is the strength? where is the enthusiasm? They look just tired.
McClellan Oscillator - lower highs... lack of strength so far.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but making lower high.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal and entered overbought territory.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - lower highs and in the middle of the range. Where is the strength?
Fear Indicator VIX - long term higher lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower highs and in the middle of the range. Where is the strength?

Day 16 of the 40 day cycle.

Week 12 of the 20 week cycle.... it looks more and more like 40 week cycle low to be expected than an 18 month cycle. I have wrote already about that... I will adjust the degree of the lows later.

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