Aug 10, 2015

Update PM

I have forgotten our friend the US dollar:) I think it gave now green light for a move higher in PM

It has squeezed one more high that is why the delay two weeks in PM/Miners:).

The longer cycle on the weekly chart looks ready to roll over too... if this is the case it should move lower for 2-3 months and PM higher.

Gold and Silver broke out higher as expected.... gold is still very weak silver looks much better. I can imagine that we have already a bottom in silver.
Again everything is about the trading plan I wrote about that last week - you must have one for both cases bottom or not.
It is early to call the bottom without confirmation.... my feeling at the moment tells me it looks like a bottom for silver and gold will move lower one more time.

Silver moved above resistance,it looks like impulse. Next resistance level and Fibo (see below), impulse and move with the same size from the range all pointing to around 15,60$ as the first stop for this move.

I wrote the weekend about MACD/RSI and trend lines - here it is one more time RSI broken and tested trend line plus divergences. We have a new move higher which is an impulse. The EW structure looks finished and the cycles are favorable so it looks good for a bottom in silver.

Gold broke higher from the triangle as expected, but still not showing impulse or strength fighting with the next resistance level 1103.
A move with the same size from the triangle points to around 1128.... the problem there is no clear impulse so far. Fibo 38,2% is at 1222 and there is strong resistance from the previous low in November 2014 and the plunge around 1130(see below).
Gold - RSI has not reached it`s trend line, no divergences, EW looks like one more wave is missing, no impulse higher so far... overall it will look much better with one more move lower.


  1. Thank you very much for the update. Any thoughts on GDX and GDXJ?

    1. The last time I have posted a chart I have shown an ending diagonal and GDX/GDXJ broke higher as expected.
      Interesting is GDX made lower low and GDXJ higher low with 5-3-5 corrective zigzag. GDX looks better for finished move lower and impulse running higher. GDXJ not so much probably better with one more move lower at the moment.
      But it is getting late in the cycle for a move higher and than lower low... the same story like gold/silver. We have to wait and see how the move higher looks like, before we can say for sure.
      I think no one can guarantee at the moment if we have a low or not. It is the same around every top/bottom. That is why have a trading plan and build a position gradually.
      I think the joker is the USD I have posted charts. If it has turned lower this time, the chances are much higher that the low is behind us.