Aug 5, 2015


US indexes moved lower as expected nothing really to show. There is many options with this choppy moves, but I am staying with the triangle for the moment.

DAX moved higher and something looking descent like an impulse, not like the mess from the weekend trying to see such. The surprise will be if we do not see 4 and 5 and this is just the second leg of a much bigger correction with one more down to follow for wave 2.
UPDATE this is probably wave 5 already when I see the move around 11600...

It is make or break for PM and miners:) They should move higher today if not I can not see nothing bullish anymore and it is something else. Cycles - you could count day 7 and a rally for several days followed but another move lower to finish one more daily cycle 20-25 days will look perfect. But we should see a move higher today... the alternative is moving lower and stretching the current daily cycle (currently at 32) a lot.

The triangle on GDXJ morphed into a-b-c with c as a diagonal that is why all the up and down as three waves. GDX similar picture but corrected deeper and was only 0,01 cent above the low of A so really make or break:) great bet for short term traders with tight stop.

Silver - I can not see a bottom so far, but at least a corrective move and wave C higher should be in the cards. Wave B as expanded flat with clear 5 waves lower to finish it and from the bottom small impulse.... today we should see a confirmation for C or it is something else and PM and miners will continue lower.


  1. Hey , sorry .

    I am wondering wat you think of the divergance between the DJTI AND SP500 and DJIA . I suspect a bigger correction is on the way . It has been 1400 since the last 10 % correction however I think this could go down to the 1700 in sp 500 which is larger than 10% . What do you think ?


  2. Hello,
    I think that DJT is working already on a much bigger correction - one leg is already behind us,now the second leg higher and than we will see another leg lower. I have shown chart on the blog... close to the bottom end of June I have warned that a leg higher is expected.
    DJI - I suspect we saw the top already but I think we will see a deep retracement because I expect SP500 to make a new high.
    The correction should move lower to at least the beginning of the wedge SP500 ~1800 which is 15%.
    So I expect a bigger correction at least 15%, but no serious move lower before mid September (estimate for now).

    1. Thanks ! Yes I agree It could be in September , October . I was researching the baltic dry index which is nearing lows which is another leading indicator. Thanks ! Your blog is most useful .

      I dont know if you follow Elliot wave international website , these guys are talking about a triple top in the SP500 and are actually quite negative , they talking about another crash . I havent made up my mind yet . Things are not as extreme as they were in 2008 /2009 .



  3. No, I do not follow Elliot wave international... but I know, they are calling for a crash for a long time.
    I am in the camp that after a deep correction we will see an inflationary boom all markets going higher and USD lower... but realy crazy shit until everything gets out of control and than deflationary bust.
    Next year stocks and commodities should make their 7/8 year cycle lows so I expect something to the upside.
    Worst case scenario I see is at least a year higher for double top, if we see a deep correction of course:)