Aug 19, 2015

Update PM

UPDATE - DAX no buying switching to bear for Europe. The bearish chart which I have posted a few weeks ago is working perfect so far.

UPDATE - added DAX it looks like it is finishing the move lower.

I was posting that I am not sure gold will manage to print an impulse... silver was looking stronger, but it hit it's target 15,60 with only three waves and reversed. It will be very unusual if silver and gold move in different direction so with very high probability gold will print only three waves too. Silver/GDXJ and Gold/GDX have slightly different patterns the first are in the timing band for a daily cycle top day 18 (silver definitely has a top) GDX made lower low and it's daily cycle is at day 9 so gold and gdx could squeeze one more move higher for a few days, but than they should turn lower too.

I wrote that triangles are usually wave B and not 2 and I think we will have soon confirmation that this is only a corrective move higher. The targets were 1122 and 1128 gold hit 1126... even if it moves one more time higher it will run into strong resistance 1130. So impulse and break out higher has very low probability at the moment.

Target hit with three waves, impulses lower "a" and "c" so it is clear move lower.

As long as the price stays above the last low there is a chance for one final move.... if gold squeezes one more move higher and silver moves higher for wave B this is a possibility.

I think this is wave 5 of ED which should finish 5 waves from the top. Minimum retracement the beginning of the wedge/the lower boundary of the gap and the upper boundary of the gap.


  1. Right now we are at your breaking point 2044 (SP500), let see if that breaks down then the Head and shoulder is shaping... if bounce back, your EW is working to ward the another Higher High. :)

    1. The last "bullish soldier" SP500 has fallen:) For the other indexes I was expecting lower high now for the SP500 too.
      I expect a few days lower and than corrective move higher for a few weeks... mid September probably 2080-2100 for much bigger H&S... let's see what happens:)