Dec 26, 2015

Weekly preview

Short term view - a pause for a day or two and than higher again.
Intermediate term view - I expect a few weeks higher.

A rally on low volume which is typical for this time of the year. Nothing new, I think we will see a few weeks higher. Worst case scenario which I see at the moment - the choppy overlapping moves lower are some kind of a diagonal and we are now in wave 2 to around 2090-2100.

Short term - at least the upper trend line should be tested. Than I think we will see the price continue higher(green).

Intermediate term - I think the indicators need a few weeks to reach overbought levels and revers.

Long term - bullish candle formation... good for a few weeks higher.

The Market Breadth Indicators - look like we have a correction behind us. No divergence, but reversing higher from near oversold levels.
McClellan Oscillator - higher after a divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - still sell signal, but in the oversold area.
Bullish Percentage - turning up.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up from levels close to oversold.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower... massive long term divergences.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned up from oversold levels.

A low exactly on time for a 20 week cycle low. I think the next 40 day cycle is running.

I think the next 20 week cycle has begun....
P.S. another bullish candle formation inverted hammer followed by strong move higher.

Here is one more chart - monthly SP500 with MA and technical indicators.
What do you think is it bear market or not? So far the bears are much weaker compared to 2000 and 2007. The oscillators are moving lower and reseting exactly like in 2000/2007, but the price is moving sideways... no clear push below MA20 with weak bounce for 2 months and staying below it.

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