May 5, 2016


It takes too long the move lower and MACD/RSI broke below the trend lines so the move since mid February is over and correction is running.
The first leg looks corrective and should finish soon on Friday or early Monday at support MA50/23,6% Fibo. It is a little bit too early for 40 day cycle low... not impossible but I think we will see one more leg lower around the end of May for 40 day/20 week cycle low before more significant move higher.

Short term it looks like a-b-c with "c" as a diagonal with two more waves up and down to finish this leg... on Friday?


  1. Great charts! You've done some good work here.

    1. Thanks! I am glad that the analysis are helpful.

  2. Brilliant! how are you coming up with these scenarios? Super accurate today. Looking at CFTC data today makes your red scenario look way more likely...these charts are identical to mid-December...but would love to read/learn how you come up with these green/red scenarios they are great. Thank you

  3. Hello!
    The easy part is theory. I have started with technical analysis later I have thought cycle theory looks very interesting and at the end I have added Elliott waves to my toolbox.
    All this methods for market analysis does not "fight" which is better they complement each other and accuracy is rising dramatically.
    The difficult part is experience. I am watching the markets every day since 2008. At the beginning it is difficult, it takes time and you make mistakes. With the time and mastering the toolbox above you just start seeing the patterns. No need for some complicated analysis or staring for hours at the charts.

    I will even explain the most important to save time for the beginners. You do not need to read 10+ books, you need to know just the important stuff. For less than a month you can be ready with the theory. Focus on main principles and avoid deep diving it will just confuse you and there is no added value. For EW and cycles for example I have not read any books:) just read the most important from Internet.
    - TA - there is so many indicators... most of them are showing the same no added value. My pick MACD/RSI to follow the trend, slow stochastic great indicator to jump on a trend when you see it hitting extreme in the opposite direction, MA50/MA200 important support/resistance level like magnets for price it always come back to kiss them:)
    - Cycles - count to 40 at the daily chart, two 40 day cycles make important 20 week cycle. There is long term cycles 4/8/16 years. The length vary for the different assets. For SP500 the cycles are shorter than the nominal models 30-40 days/12-16 weeks/3,5 years/7 years.
    - Elliot waves - there is impulses and corrections. When it moves steadily higher and you can count 5 moves it is an impulse. If the moves overlap each other it is a corrective move. Usually it is well visible on the chart. 90% of the theory is about corrective patterns because a correction can take different shapes there is even combination of them. The important information is to know if a move is a correction or not... the exact shape is not so important.
    After a correction an impulse will follow. When you see an impulse there will be more to the upside after a correction.

    The rest is experience, you have to invest a lot of time especially at the beginning, but with the time you will learn the tricks.