May 12, 2016


It did not last too long to see a confirmation that it is traders time. The expected zigzag was finished only for three days touching the lower resistance line. Strong bullish candle on Tuesday followed by strong bearish candle on Wednesday. You have to dig deeper on smaller time frames trying to predict corrective moves.... not really a grateful job:) the success rate drops like a rock.

What we have - corrective move higher to resistance, move lower which looks more like impulse, but so far three legs 3=1x1,618 waiting for confirmation today. Price pattern points lower, the oscillators Histogram/RSI(5)/McClellan Oscillator look like they want to move higher.
This is closer look with the 10min chart. Based on the thoughts above - first I think the indexes will finish small impulse lower which means expect more to the downs. Given the speed even the move higher to circle should happen today or early tomorrow. Second based on the indicators it could be just another zigzag from a flat correction(red) or just continuing lower. I favor the flat correction, but we need more price action for a confirmation.

Trading - if an impulse lower is confirmed wait for a pullback around the circle area. Stop is the last high so the risk is 10-15 points and profit 30 points(red) or more.

Interesting article A May-November Relationship from Tom McClellan, The McClellan Market Report.
Historical research how the market behaves from May to November in the second presidential term during the election year.
Stunning the historical pattern shows exactly the same path which I have presented last weekend based on cycles - lower to the end of May, higher in summer June/mid July, lower around the end of September.

No comments:

Post a Comment