Apr 14, 2017

Update

I am taking a break for two weeks. The next weekly update will be on 6th of Mai... probably I will post a short update on 2/3th of Mai.
I do not expect dramatic changes... the "surprise" could be if the correction is finished in the next two weeks which is the short end of this time frame which I am counting currently at 2-4 weeks, so not really a surprise.

It is like in November, it is a correction - constantly changing short term moves and a lot of combinations possible. I have shown below two options. There is at least other two scenarios - wave d of a triangle which suggest the same higher, but the final leg lower will not make lower low or another scenario just plunging lower. I think it is more likely to see mid-cycle low of the 40 day cycle instead of a plunge and I would like to see a fear for the last leg lower so I show the scenarios which I prefer.

Some would say not very helpful so many options... I would say if you focus on following the moves on short term basis you are missing the important messages. The important messages is - it is a correction and after a correction another rally follows. The exact shape of the correction is info just for the statistic.
The price action seems to confirm my analysis - the move lower will last at least 9-10 weeks(important cycle low expected 18 month) and at week 7 we have 3-4 possible patterns which means this is just a correction.

The wave lower is already running, some retracement to resistance/MA50/MA200 and final leg lower.

Flat correction for B and final leg lower C. If it is a triangle instead of B this is will be d and e to around 2330 instead of C/4

25 comments:

  1. Hi krasi,

    This pattern of retracement looks like the biotech index this week! Looking forward to next week and happy Easter!

    Kali

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  2. I think your April 11 chart is more likely..another rally coming imo .enjoy your time off

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  3. There are many including Pritchard who claim wave 3 is behind us. Krasi has an interesting point of stating wave 3 still is not complete. They both have valid points but if Pritchard is correct, the retracement should be more than what's indicated. I guess we will see how things will unfold.

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  4. Absolutely spot on

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  5. what is spot on? that we are in wave4 still or that a wave5 has already started?

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  6. I would love to hear from Krasi - just a quick message update - no need for any charts. Thanks.

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  7. @Raymond
    Spot on it would have bounced back up to resistance level

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  8. sound like C/B is broken EW rule,pattern is changed

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  9. could be a Head and shoulder forming

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  10. It looks like it will be a flat correction.

    Cheers

    Kali

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  11. It looks like v of 3. I do not think this rally will last very long... another week. This should be the third wave of v of 3 so higher than 2400, but not much higher.

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    1. Thanks for the update. In this sense, the March down move of SPX is wave iv of 3 and this wave v was from march 27? and APR 13 is the wave (2) of v?

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  12. Flat is more likely for the reference index which I mentioned a few times - XLF.
    Close to MA50 and the trend line with a-b-c for B.
    The other indexes look like 1-2-3 and the indicators to at least few more days higher so more likely v of 3 for them.

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  13. In fact still in B for a flat do not look bad at all even with a higher high.
    The indicators and cycles suggest that this move should not last very long and this favors B.

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    1. Do you think GDXJ has been closed to bottom in the near terms (hourly, several days)? Thanks.

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    2. In this time frame I think yes - one more lower low then several days higher.

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    3. Thanks. Still one more lower low to $30/share or it has been yesterday last minute final low and now begin higher?

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    4. One more low to 30-30,50

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  14. Finally see some top appears? thanks.

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    1. One more high is needed, this is small wave iv from the last low.

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  15. If you could Krasi when you arrive back if you would post your thoughts and chart on GDXJ. Hopefully, a big move lower to set the pace for a larger move higher.

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  16. What a gorgeous symmetry in GDXJ. WOW. Look at 12/2013 and 12/2016. Then look at 6/2013, 5/2014 and now. We bottom somewhere between 30-31 to start a 200% rally.

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    1. Not to mention symetrical tops as well around 50 and 43 USD...

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    2. It is not a surprise miners have stable 12/24/48 week cycle. In summer there is a rally from the 24 week cycle low and in the end of the year from the 48 cycle low.

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