Apr 14, 2017
I am taking a break for two weeks. The next weekly update will be on 6th of Mai... probably I will post a short update on 2/3th of Mai. I do not expect dramatic changes... the "surprise" could be if the correction is finished in the next two weeks which is the short end of this time frame which I am counting currently at 2-4 weeks, so not really a surprise. It is like in November, it is a correction - constantly changing short term moves and a lot of combinations possible. I have shown below two options. There is at least other two scenarios - wave d of a triangle which suggest the same higher, but the final leg lower will not make lower low or another scenario just plunging lower. I think it is more likely to see mid-cycle low of the 40 day cycle instead of a plunge and I would like to see a fear for the last leg lower so I show the scenarios which I prefer. Some would say not very helpful so many options... I would say if you focus on following the moves on short term basis you are missing the important messages. The important messages is - it is a correction and after a correction another rally follows. The exact shape of the correction is info just for the statistic. The price action seems to confirm my analysis - the move lower will last at least 9-10 weeks(important cycle low expected 18 month) and at week 7 we have 3-4 possible patterns which means this is just a correction. The wave lower is already running, some retracement to resistance/MA50/MA200 and final leg lower.