Intermediate term view - the correction to continue for 4-6 weeks.
We saw one more low and short term bottom for the 40 day cycle - no surprises, but not clear pattern. I can not say - 100% we will see lower high.
DAX and Nasdaq look like final fifth wave higher with iv and v missing. XLF (last chart) is showing clear pattern now in b of B.
If SPX/DJ follow the same pattern like DAX / XLF / Nasdaq we should see (b) and (c) from b so I expect lower high for SPX.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - we have one leg higher which looks like an impulse so more to the upside expected. If it is wave b it should not move above the resistance zone and reverse sharply...
Intermediate term - the index needs more time for the histogram to reset. If we see higher high I do not think this will be the beginning of a new leg higher just (v) of iii or 3.
Long term - no change, waiting for the wave from Feb.2016 to be finished.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher, but short term not like expect move up for months.
McClellan Oscillator - buy signal.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - in oversold territory, it should spend there several weeks.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal, but still above 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - continue making higher lows, the surprise will be to the downside for stocks.
HURST CYCLES
40 day cycle low behind us and day 4 of the next and last 40 day cycle before 18 month cycle low.
Week 10 of the last 20 week cycle. Expecting to see an important top soon and 18 month cycle low first half of May.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
No price flip up, still sell signal and the histogram pointing lower.... no bullish signs despite the bullish candle.
I think XLF shows clear picture what is going on. Very clear waves and pattern, I will be very surprised if it does not find resistance at MA200 and reverses lower.
Hi Krasi,
ReplyDeleteWould you agree to an assumption that IWM has already topped out for this cycle? It looks to me that the short push above $140 a few weeks ago was a short v of 5 completing wave V of the whole cycle. I have a feeling that if we see another all time high it would be a result of some kind of a corrective move, for example an expanded flat. I am curious what you think?
Thank you
Krisarnold
I do not see an important top fro RUT. I see the same count like SP500.
DeleteThe reason I say it is that the complicated correction from dec 09 to feb 08 looks to me like wave iv of 3 which often is long and confusing which is often the case. How would you qualify it in this wave sequence? Really appreciate.
DeleteKrisarnold
The same like SP500 iv of 3, but than IWM 140 was just the top of wave 3 and not v of 5 of V.
DeleteHi Krasi,
DeleteI am interested in your view on Nasdaq composite after the Nasdaq 100 made all time high. So you think this is completion of the wave 3?
Thanks
Kali
No iii of 3 still looks better, just one big red bar is way too short for wave iv of 3.
DeleteThanks for your comments Krasi...I guess I got a bit overextended with my IWM estimate....:) I am only wondering where the wave i of 3 ends? It cannot be $134 because iv of 3 has violated it already. The rest of it is pretty much straight line up, with a short break at $130 and a tiny $2 retracement. Would that be it? What do you think ?
ReplyDeleteThank you
Krisarnold
Wave i of 3 finished around 125 in September 2016.
DeleteWhere is (i) of iii of 3 or what ever it is? - I do not care. Do not give me a new information. Do not give me an edge. So I do not care and I do not dig deeper and deeper.
Remember the goal is to find the direction not every wave.
Hey krasi,
DeleteWhat do you think of xbi?
Kali
Corrective pattern from the Feb.2016, just waiting for the markets to turn lower
DeleteThanks krasi,
DeleteAlways Appreciate your insight
Hi Krasi, what are your thoughts on the USD? thank you!
ReplyDeleteIn the last "Long term update" I wrote that I expect wave 4 lower, then higher again. We have now the zig-zag lower. The move up from the low is impulse so there is more to the upside.... the forecast seems to work... so no change USD should continue higher and make a major top above 104.
DeleteCiao krasi, grazie di condividere le TUE Analisi e Opinioni con noi, Sono daccordo sull spx di solito se la Correzione e di 5 onde DOPO Una breve salita di (b) dovrebbero essercene Altre 5 al ribasso, tra' l'altro anche mcd ha incrociato al ribasso, quindi ritengo Il Tuo contegio di 4-6 Settimane di correzzione molto realistico ......
ReplyDeletekrasi, potresti postare un grafico del dax con le onde di elliott ?
ReplyDeleteIt is exactly the same like SP500 including the question if this is iii of 3 or v of 3.
Deletekrasi, cosa ne pensi di questa analisi? https://northmantrader.com/2017/04/04/beast-mode/
ReplyDeleteThe same what I am explaining. We need to see some fear... to see the bulls bleeding before any move higher.
DeleteSome of those proficient in cycle work project a potential low in GDXJ in May. You suggest a top soon in the markets and a low in May. Wonder if your charts show anything different at this point on the possibility (not suggesting the is a long term correlation-I know your thoughts on that) that they bottom together.
ReplyDeleteIt is possible if we see a little bit longer cycle for SP500 and a little bit shorter cycle for GDXJ. With average length Sp500 should bottom the first half of May, GDXJ the second half
DeleteThank you Krasi.
ReplyDelete