Short term view - not very clear we have to wait a few days, but I think we will see one more lower low and short term bottom.
Intermediate term view - the correction to continue for 5-7 weeks.
We have a move lower... obviously a correction is running since 1.March. Do not get too exited, as expected the first part takes time and it is shallow, later in April should be more interesting.
So far we do not have impulse lower only a-b-c and at day 37 the 40 day cycle the indexes are nearing a bottom. The short term looks confusing, I have the feeling that every index has different pattern. Looking at the weekly chart it does not look like it will reverse and rally so I think we will see finished impulse, but waiting a few days for confirmation is not a bad idea.
If I am wrong we will not see one more lower low for a finished impulse and higher high is possible, but it will be short living. From trading perspective in both cases you have to wait roughly two weeks for a better entry unless you are a day trader.
I have changed the alternate scenario on the daily chart - I removed the alternate bearish scenario because it takes too long for the price to follow market breadth and added bullish one if the major indexes move in sync with Nasdaq(see below the chart).
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the major indexes do not look weak. Weakness are showing DJT,RUT,XLF(see the last two charts). So far we have just a-b-c, the bears need one more push lower to confirm that a bigger correction is running.
Intermediate term - The new alternate scenario is shown in sync with Nasdaq. DJ/SPX - you can count wave iv/3, but not for Nasdaq.
RSI moves too steep lower and we have MA50 support... add to this mature 40 day cycle so I expect short term bottom soon. The only question is if we will see one more lower low or not.
Long term - no change, waiting for the wave from Feb.2016 to be finished. I think we should see a move lower for a few weeks
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - are in correction mode pointing lower, but not strong sell signal more like indecision.
McClellan Oscillator - around the zero line, waiting for decision up or down.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - still above 75.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range...
Fear Indicator VIX - BB is expanding, but the bears need break out of the range above 13.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Day 37 of the 40 day cycle. We are nearing the low for the current cycle.
Week 9 of the last 20 week cycle. Expecting 18 month cycle low late April/early May.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
We have finally price flip on the weekly chart and sell signal. This chart looks like reversal - the candle and the oscillator. It is less likely to reverse again and head for higher highs.
NASDAQ - in contrast to the DJ/SPX it made a new high with an impulse this week. The count shown below looks much better for this index.
RUT and XLF have better looking patterns, but still we need one more lower low as confirmation.