Short term view - final move higher... higher high or lower high I do not know.
Intermediate term view - I expect correction for 6-8 weeks and 18 month cycle low in the second half of April.
No new information, the price moved lower as expected, the pattern is is still not 100% clear to say we have reversal. Market breadth turned lower and it is in correction mode already. Higher high is still possible, but with this market breadth it should not last long before the price follows. The McClellan Oscillator moved below 80, which usually means the correction has begun. On the other side it means expect a bounce from an oversold level. I expect a few days higher before FOMC, then we will see what happens on Wednesday.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - we saw a move lower touching support and the trend line... now waiting for the next high either lower high or higher high with divergences.
Intermediate term - RSI broke below the trend line, even if we see a higher high I expect RSI divergence and reversal lower.
Long term - no change, waiting for the wave from Feb.2016 to be finished. The histogram turned lower, anything to the upside should be short living.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - all indicators turned lower and look bearish.... the price should follow soon.
McClellan Oscillator - moved below -80 and retracing from oversold levels.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower, but still above 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower but still at higher levels.
Fear Indicator VIX - making higher lows, but still not exploding higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading for the oversold level.
Day 27 of the 40 day cycle. The 18 month cycle is pulling the price lower already.
Week 7 of the last 20 week cycle. Waiting for a turn lower and 18 month cycle low in late April.
A lot of interest about GDXJ. In my last comment I wrote what I expect and here is visual how it looks like.
Whole week the market tortured the bulls and the bounce came in the last few hours. The market is cruel, the big boys squeeze you until you give up. I hope those who are holding longs has not freaked out and sold at the bottom.