Mar 15, 2017

Update

Ok the indexes are higher as expected and now it is decision time - either just a corrective move a-b-c or they rally higher.
I think it is a-b-c, but I do not bet at the moment just waiting.



The same for GDXJ.

38 comments:

  1. Gotta hand it to you krasi. You nailed another one! :)

    Kali

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    1. Not really, but I would say I know roughly what to expect... how the frame will look like.
      I gave up this short term counts and trading.

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  2. Thanks! You mean you expect the red count to materialize on both the charts?

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    1. Yes. The confirmation will be if in the next two days the rally stalls(I do not expect sudden reversal). Either I am wrong and they rally higher because this is wave 3 or it is the red one.

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  3. So, either we go up or we go down, according to your charts. Great analysis, sign me up.

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    1. Forgive me that I am such a dumbass and can't nail the top of wave 3 in a bull market.

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  4. Krasi, given the length of 3. I think we will have a lengthier 4. It will get many whipsawed because they are thinking we are either rallying hard or crashing. We might so slightly higher and consolidate in a triangle. I think where you have b, i suggest it is just a A wave of a triangle or of a larger zig-zag. thoughts?

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    1. Which wave 4?
      Big picture from Feb.2016 I think it will spend a few weeks up and down(everybody expecting continuation higher) then sharp sell off for 2-3 weeks(to much greed we need to see the bulls bleeding). Wave 2 was a flat so zig-zag for 4 looks good.
      Short term from Jan.2017 if it is wave 4 I think it should be over. It should not take so much time with triangles etc. it is a small degree wave.

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  5. Maybe last wave up is ending diagonal like in dax..

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    1. It is possible... at least the waiting is over soon we should know what is going on.

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  6. Thx for the update Krasi! It is indeed decision time (and don't mind the trolls, only the ones who have been following you understand the watershed moment :) )

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    1. Out of the context maybe it looks stupid:) But someone who read my posts the last several weeks knows what I am talking about. I repeated it many times - I do not know and I even do not try to guess when we will see a top because this is a lost cause. I concentrate on my trading plan and on this what I know... or I think I know that we will see a top and a correction for several weeks.

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  7. Thank you Krasi for all the good job and sharing with us, based on time Cycles the correction(I dont think a big one) is imminent (or even getting late).will see, this market forgets about correction.That is not Healthy.

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    1. It is typical for the market at this stage to behave this way. The last wave of a bull market is very often almost vertical. I think because the sellers give up and the average Joe buys the top. I read somewhere that in the last several months there is huge inflows into stocks.

      Ha-ha-ha I remember why I have started learning TA. I bought the top in 2007, back then I was average Joe. I wanted to know why I have lost my money:)

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  8. For GDXJ, the expected rebound was earlier than expectation... Was there any indicator to give clue?? Or it just depends on the FOMC result? Thanks.

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    1. There is no indicator which can predict such violent move higher for such short time. You can not predict that GDXJ will move >10% higher because FED raised the rate with 0,25% which is well known for months.
      It is just volatility around such events, but you can analyze charts and make decent forecast for the bigger picture. As I wrote do not sell at the bottom because there will be a move to 36-38. Not perfect my forecast, but it was not just a guess either.

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  9. Thank you Krasi for your considered thoughts. Keep us posted, if you will, when something definitive occurs on the charts of GDXJ. Hmmm...surge higher and now backing off...

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  10. I have never traded gdxj but why on earth would you want to trade something that rises and falls 10% in one day? It leaves so little room for error...

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    1. One big group is trading it exactly because of that - the big profits. For a professional who knows what he is doing it is fine, for an unexperienced trader not so much... that is why so many questions:)
      I suspect there is another big group which is reading all this articles about doom and gloom and gold at 5000-10000. This will not gone happen. It is just a cyclical bull market for 3-4 years.
      Personally I do not trade it, but I am watching the big picture because there will be one more leg like 2016 - 200%-400% profit is possible.

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  11. Just having fun with it is all:). I'm looking for a low where I can maintain a position for several months. And I'm not sure it was already seen and we continue to move inexorably higher from here or we move in a sideways fashion from here until May. So your insights are helpful. I enjoy this sector as it may very well be the sector among most other sectors in the market to be in once we start that move higher whether it's here now or later even it['s simply a trade as opposed to a long term hold (which is another story)- what can I say:)

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    1. GDXJ is at a crossroad too. The cycle guys argue between two models - the first says the low was in Dec.2016 the second points to important low between Sep.2017-Nov.2017
      Because of the impulse lower I have switched to the second one.
      We have to see an impulse higher to negate the one lower or move above 41 to switch back.
      The longer cycles are 12 weeks/24 weeks/48 weeks/22 months(96 weeks)/4 years(45 months)
      It is not a surprise that we saw a bottom at week 12 and move higher in week 13(this week).
      For the bearish case this rally should last max 2-3 weeks and stay below MA200 and turn lower again for a 24 week cycle low in June-July.

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    2. Do you mean the march bottom has already over in last week? Thanks. I recall you said we expect march bottom by the end of this month? Thanks. Given this is crossroad, does red line in GDXJ means we expect the march bottom? and the white line means March bottom has already there?

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    3. Krasi is telling you that GDXJ might go up or it might go down. Maybe it already hit a bottom or maybe it will bottom in the future. This stuff is pretty simple actually.

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    4. nicolas, Based on my analysis, I believe what you're telling us is that you probably don't have a job or much of a life. Any other person who came across this website and thought it was BS would just move on...but you come back, and since you clearly don't understand what Krasi's saying and have so much animosity, that tells me you probably lost money, and want someone to blame. Educate yourself, or just get lost. Krasi has accumulated a tremendous amount of self educated knowledge on these tools which he shares for free and even answers everyone's questions. If you don't understand this information or how to use it to create good risk/reward trades, you shouldn't be trading on it at all.

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    5. Yes, the March bottom is behind us. I was expecting a low in the second half of March, but first 1-2 weeks deviation for 14 months cycle is understandable:) and second I think my cycle model was wrong in the first place.
      The white and red lines show that there is two scenarios which are completely different and now is it decision time. The market should show us in the next 2-3 weeks which one is the right one.
      The bullish one white - the important low was in Dec.2016-> 12 week low behind us -> rally higher.
      The bearish one red - we had a bounce from important low in Dec.2016,but the bigger cycles are pointing lower. In this case we have just a bottom for the 12 week cycle, 1-3 weeks pause and it should continue lower.

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    6. Hello nicolas

      - if you search someone to tell you buy/sell, to make decision for you and take the responsibility for you - this is the wrong place. I present my analysis and everyone should decide for himself what to do - sell/buy/ignore what ever.

      - if you search "forum fight" because you are frustrated - this is the wrong place. I was losing for years, I was frustrated for years, I was "fighting" in forums for years... all this is behind me it is part of the road:) I do not pretend I know the future, I do not want to be famous the smart guy with the best analysis of the world, I do not want to sell anything so you can not hurt my ego. I threw it away to become a successful trader.

      - if you want to learn something - follow my blog for longer time not just one post. I will give you this credit and explain the meaning of this post.
      How many positions are possible when you trade? The right answer is not two but three - long/short/I do not know(on the side line and watching only).
      I have my opinion that GDXJ will move lower I wrote this, but exactly at this particular moment there is a high risk to be wrong. So I step aside and wait a few weeks the market to make a decision and confirm or reject my opinion. My position is I do not know which is legitimate position.
      I wrote that we will see PM/miners lower in March, I wrote do not sell the bottom expect higher to 36-38 - this worked fine(where were you to mock me:). This was what I knew now I do not know.
      The two scenarios are completely different, they will run for months longer than 6 months and soon we will know the outcome. So there is two options:
      - wait for a few weeks on the side line the market to make a decision. If it is bullish it will move higher for a year plenty of time to trade on the long side. If it is bearish it should move 7-9 month lower plenty of time to trade on the short side.
      - gamble and bet on one of the two outcomes. I think in terms of risk when you make profits it is easy. Why shorting when it explodes 15% in my face. Why going long when there is an impulse lower and only correction higher so far?
      The assumption that if you nail the top/bottom you will make bigger profits is wrong. If you trade low risk setup you can deploy more capital and make bigger profits with less risk and much higher success rate - this gamble at this particular moment is right away classified as worthless for me.

      Most traders have an approach which is completely wrong - you are definitely in this group. They focus on the unknown and are not able to see the opportunities.
      What you see - I want to know the direction and your answer is, it will move higher or lower what a crap.
      What I see - opportunities. Have you looked beyond the "I do not know" period? Why do you focus on the next few days when the market is making a decision for the next 6 months and longer? Why do you focus on the "I do not know" period and not on "I know" after that?
      To be a trader you have to change your thinking and approach. You have not reached this level.


      To sum up - you do not need to know the direction or have a position all the time. Trading is not gambling. I do not know is legitimate answer like higher or lower.... and often worth more than being long or short.

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    7. About "The white and red lines show that there is two scenarios which are completely different and now is it decision time. The market should show us in the next 2-3 weeks which one is the right one." Should either scenario have to match the either scenario of the total market? Bullish white line means the whole market has also bullish and bearish red line means whole market is also bearish. Or the combination doesn't matter. We can have bearish market but bullish gold miner? Thanks.

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    8. Which market is the total market? If you mean stock indexes - no they are not correlated.
      GDXJ is index of junior gold miners. If PM move higher they will move higher too and the opposite.

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  12. Excellent Krasi. We're on track for what to look for.

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  13. Hey Krasi,

    I have been following your SOXX index. When you see SOXX with new highs while the Nasdaq index looks like an abc move, do ypou treat the junior index to follow the larger index in terms of count?

    Thanks,

    Kali

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    1. For trading I do not compare different indexes just focus on the price of what I am trading. On short term basis there could be some deviation, but long term when the indexes are closely related you can not expect semiconductors to move lower and technology sector higher.
      The Feb.2016 bottom is a good example the A-B-C looks different, but it is the same pattern.

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  14. Hi Krasi
    How would you define the first wave down on your first chart here, from the top down just before a-b-c? Is it A? That shallow?
    Thanks
    Krisarnold

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    1. 1 of A if the correction is running.

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  15. Yes that makes sense...and with today's lower close Spx may have started 3 of A.
    Krisarnold

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  16. Today was quadruple witch, hard to read with convinction...strong RUT sending me mixed signals as well, hopefully a wave 2 cover or quad witch related...but very strong ETF flows into small caps this week so I'm not convinced either way.

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