Short term view - waiting for confirmation if we have a reversal or not.
Intermediate term view - when the top is behind us, I expect correction for 6-8 weeks and 18 month cycle low in the second half of April.
We have now the expected wave v higher. There is still no confirmation for a reversal, only one red day. There is a chance for one more higher high as long as we do not see a break below 2350 with impulsive wave. We are trying to find a top for a 3rd wave in a bull market so do not get excited too much. Look at the weekly chart MACD/RSI, we see strength this is definitely wave 3. If you are not comfortable with risk and you do not care about 5% move do not try to trade on the short side.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - for confirmation I want to see the price moving below minor support 2350/trend line/MA200 and accelerate lower (red).
If we do not see this most likely this is the top of wave iii and wave iv is running (green).
Intermediate term - looking at other indexes and indicators/market breadth erasing some divergences the green scenario looks more likely.
We have two support areas - one corresponds to 38,2% Fibo and pullback 5%(green scenario) the other 50% Fibo and correction 9%(red scenario).
Now just waiting for confirmation that the top is behind us.
Long term - no change, waiting for the wave from Feb.2016 to be finished. The indicators are showing a lot of strength, this is definitely wave 3.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - mixed picture, some indicators(McClellan) turned lower, Bullish Percentage showing strength erasing long term divergence, Percent of Stocks above MA50 doing nothing at the overbought level with multiple divergences.
All this means to me more shallow wave lower (the green scenario) and the first wave A will be weaker the sell off should come with wave C.
McClellan Oscillator - moved below zero
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned lower.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - around the overbought level, still no sell signal.
Fear Indicator VIX - BB starting to widen. I expect higher low and sharp reversal higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Day 22 of the 40 day cycle. The 18 month cycle should start pulling the price lower.
Week 6 of the last 20 week cycle.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
We have combo at 11 and countdown at 10. We need one more higher high to finish the sequence. No price flip so far.
GDXJ - currently watching this two scenarios. The bullish (green) 1-2 i-ii. Bearish (red) much bigger zig-zag. I think it will be the green one and I think PM/miners will start really rallying after the summer because the USD is not finished to the upside.