May 1, 2017

Update

We saw a move higher, bigger than expected, but I still think this is just B. The final wave higher could make higher high, but again this will be just B for expanded flat. FOMC on Wednesday perfect for a top.
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14 comments:

  1. AnonymousMay 1, 2017, 9:30:00 PM

    Welcome back!

    Kali

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  2. Steve NakamotoMay 1, 2017, 11:15:00 PM

    I love these updates and new charts!

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  3. UnknownMay 2, 2017, 1:30:00 AM

    welcome Back Krasi!!! your thoughts on iwm, RUT?

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    1. KrasiMay 2, 2017, 7:26:00 AM

      RUT looks like finished wave B from expanded flat..... alternate one more minor higher high is possible than this should be v of 3 instead of B and 4 lower will follow.

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    2. UnknownMay 2, 2017, 8:37:00 PM

      Hi Krasi...yes I agree! feels like it is done! a drop to 1380 before a new high will confirm that...

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  4. AnonymousMay 2, 2017, 4:37:00 PM

    GDXJ looks already bottom yesterday at around $31? Not sure of the impact from FED decision date tomorrow...

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    1. KrasiMay 2, 2017, 6:46:00 PM

      It looks like a bottom... but I think it is only short term bottom. One more low later in May before a rally in the summer.

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    2. AnonymousMay 2, 2017, 7:00:00 PM

      Thank you. So not likely to get around 30 in next few days? Is there reason for one more low later in May? And the real rally would be later May/early June again like 2014? So interesting...

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    3. KrasiMay 2, 2017, 8:31:00 PM

      Look at the charts there is a rally in summer and at the end of the year. This is because miners have stable cycles 24/48 weeks and so on. The 24 week cycle bottoms in the middle of the year and the 48 week cycle in the end of the year then a rally follows.
      Currently we have week 19 so close to a bottom, but when I look at the charts a few more weeks will look better.
      30 in the next few days does not look likely.

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    4. AnonymousMay 2, 2017, 11:53:00 PM

      27 and ~30,5 are two levels for support, resistance is at 43 and 50. That first support was tested on december. Either 31 was THE low or it will go just a little bit lower in the coming days. No need to guess just buy with 1 year horizon.

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  5. AnonymousMay 3, 2017, 9:00:00 PM

    Now can we say the top has been there? At least for SPX, no new high for now and seems to be some round top

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    1. KrasiMay 4, 2017, 9:57:00 AM

      No signs for a top so far... but it takes too long to move higher. It is possible to see test of the gap/MA200 hourly and one more higher high for ED from the March low, like the scenario for RUT which I have commented above.

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  6. AnonymousMay 4, 2017, 10:05:00 PM

    any thoughts on oil? thanks Krasi.

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    1. KrasiMay 5, 2017, 8:20:00 AM

      Long term the forecast looks on track. I was expecting top and lower for most of the year. Currently month 16 from a cycle lasting 20-22 months so the direction should be down in the next 4-6 months.
      Intermediate/short term - difficult pattern, a lot of room for speculation.
      At the moment I think this is wave a of B... probably a diagonal. Difficult to explain without a chart -> 1-2 weeks for a short term bottom -> 1-2 weeks higher -> then lower again for intermediate term bottom(around end of June)-> then test of the 48-50 area for b of B.

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