Short term view - no confirmation for a reversal, but I think next week should be lower.
Intermediate term view - not very clear, waiting to see next week.
SP500 squeezed 2 points above the March high and turned lower, but I do not see an impulse for confirmation. All indicators are pointing lower and I think next week should be lower.
The short term picture is messy. Since Brexit we have 4-5 weeks higher and 2-3 months sideway move, this is is repeating for the third time now. We have flat pattern for 11 weeks since 1-th of March. We have a few zig-zags and one impulse from the April low... accordingly many combinations - c of B for flat correction, final high for iii of 3 and iv just beginning, v of 3 running and this impulse is just the first wave higher, not forgetting and B of a triangle.
Intermediate term - I think we are in some kind of 4-th wave. I have changed 10 times my mind which is the most likely scenario and at the end I do not know exactly which pattern we have. This is typical with waves 4, more price action is necessary and we will know the pattern when it is mature.
Overall I do not think we saw the top of wave 3 and VIX historical behavior(see previous post) says this should be just iv of 3.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - this impulse can be counted different ways... interesting is all counts are pointing lower for the next week, indicators are pointing lower, the daily cycle is mature. I will be really surprised if we see a rally next week.
I am waiting to see the decline how deep it will be and if it is a impulse or corrective to negate some of the options.
Intermediate term - the histogram is pointing lower, RSI/MACD with lower high... so far the signs are for a move lower.
Preferred scenario is green wave iv of 3... just I do not know where to put it's low at the moment.
Long term - no change, waiting for the wave from Feb.2016 to be finished.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are pointing lower.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal but still strong above 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - historical low values. I think it will rise and test the level one more time.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Day 33 of the 40 day cycle. It is mature and it is more likely to see a move lower.
Week 16 for the 20 week cycle. The picture is not 100% clear... if this is not wave C for iv of 3 the cycle count should be adjusted.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
If you follow the rules the count is still 11 for combo/countdown. For the last bars it is allowed to make only higher high to count them so this week could be 12 for combo/countdown. This tool allows "flexibility" too... like EW and cycles there is room for adjustment.