Jun 21, 2017

Update

Move up to touch one more time the trend line and nasty reversal candle with more divergences. The Jury is still out there to decide if this is an impulse or wave B of expanded flat.... I think we will see a move lower to the 2415 area support/38%Fibo/MA50. If it is corrective we will see one more higher high if it is an impulse we will see a bounce from MA50 and lower to MA200:) classical technical analysis.

6 comments:

  1. Hi Krasi,

    Expanded flat vote for me,

    cheers,

    kali

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    1. Some indexes need one more higher high, some look like reversed already some unclear like SP500.... it is confusing.

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  2. Thanks for the update and great work Krasi. Although I'm currently short I just want to highlight the possibility that we could also just close the gap from Monday and reverse higher as a possibility...just throwing it out there. Having said that, please let us know when you feel we have confirmation as this seems to be the hardest part in this market. P.s. any idea what wave we are in in XOP?

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    1. XOP looks like A-B-C higher and now another A-B-C lower similar to crude oil.
      The move does not look finished, I think there will be bounce and another lower low.

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  3. Thanks for the update Krasi. I just wanted to point out that every new high since April (slight or large) has been followed by a nasty reversal... Which makes me wonder, is this to train the shorts to stick around next time it makes a new high, so that it can create a large prolonged short squeeze at some point? or is this because so much energy and leverage is required by the bulls to make a new high that they have no choice but to delever once that high is made? it's a giant mind game... but taking a step back and looking at the long term charts, my biggest lesson from this whole experience is to always trade in the direction of the trend which is a bull market from 2009. The fact that it's so easy (just buy and hold and buy dips) makes me sick to my stomach given how much energy I've expended trying to be clever when all we really need to know is money is created out of thin air and assets are finite...and Central banks are still creating trillions a year. Life is too short. Sorry to sound cynical, I've learned so much from this blog and I think it's fantastic and will keep reading, I just wanted to share my own personal experience from trying to time markets...it's not for the faint of heart :) Again, thanks for sharing all this great insight and analysis Krasi.

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