Intermediate term view - it is more likely that the correction is already running.
We have the short term bottom and move higher.... overall the same analysis like last week. We had one strong day and three days nothing so I think it is more likely this is wave B. As long as the price stays below resistance around 2475 it is wave B. If we see the price above it expect another higher high around 2520. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - more likely another leg higher to challenge resistance. Less likely scenarios - plunge lower from this levels and B is over or a move above resistance for a final high around 2520.
Intermediate term - I think correction is running and it will take time... most likely some combination. Now I expect one more leg higher next week and the histogram resetting above zero.
Long term - no change, expecting correction wave 4 followed by another rally higher. All indicators are pointing lower. I think RSI should at least touch the trend line before the correction is over.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - trying to turn higher, but no signs of strength - most likely this is wave B higher.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero cleared the oversold conditions.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal reached oversold levels.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - looks like a-b-c lower with another leg higher to follow.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned up in the middle of the range, but if you see the cumulative AD this move higher should be corrective.
HURST CYCLES
Day 4, I think the next 40 day cycle is running.
Week 1 or 8? Either we have 20 week cycle low in this case we should see higher high or we have 11+8(20 week cycle low in July) weeks and we are in the middle of the second 20 week cycle from April this fits much better wit a correction already running.
Thanks so much for taking your time and sharing your thoughts. Really helpful to see the logic in your analysis.
ReplyDeleteKali
Doesn't the xbi retracement look to be over?
ReplyDeleteI think just wave a is over. Lower for b and another leg higher for c in sync with the major indexes will look better.
DeleteXBI has already retraced so high. Do you think it would pass the previous high point given SPX would have another wave b to test the 2470? Thanks.
DeleteYes it looks very likely. It outperforms the major indexes and if they have one more leg higher XBI should make higher high.
DeleteFor Nasdaq, could the recent peak be b wave following the wave 3 top? So we should be in the beginning of c?
ReplyDeleteJohn
Less likely. See the qqq charts from the previous post.
DeleteHow about PM and gold miners? It seems to rebound in short term(hourly chart) while the peak has reached in daily chart? Maybe time to short? The concern is if SPX begins wave C as expected, Gold may be impulsive up again as risk shelter? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteBegins?
DeleteIt is about JPY not SPX. No idea if it time to short I would wait for one more high.
DeleteKrasi,
ReplyDeleteThis market is unbelievably resilient. Looks like we are blowing out to the upside. What is your view on the target for the spy and qqq?
Thanks,
Kali
Nothing has changed the same patterns.
DeleteYour intermediate term comment from last weekend - why did you expect/how did you know the histogram would reset to above 0?
ReplyDeleteExperience:) We had already a trough lower. To see another one without a reset you need short living pullback and sharp sell off which will be some kind of a third wave.... and the pattern was completely different. As I wrote I did not see something bearish, the dip buyers moved the prices higher as expected.
Delete